1. Most Recent UT/Texas Tribune Survey: October 19-26, 2011
The October 2011 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll found Herman Cain edging Rick Perry by a point among those intending to vote in the 2012 Republican Primary, a statistical tie within the 4.93 percentage point margin of error for the subsample of 2012 GOP primary voters. Cain was chosen by 27% of the sample, Perry by 26%, Ron Paul by 12%, and Mitt Romney by 9%. Newt Gingrich was the choice of 8%, and Michele Bachmann was the choice of 2%. John Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Gary Johnson each registered 1%. Eleven percent of registered don't know, and 1% another (unnamed) Republican candidate.
Results have been initially released by The Texas Tribune. Discussion of poll results and new graphics will be released and available at the Texas Politics Web prior to the start of the spring 2012 semester.
2. Mood of the State (October 2011)
Texans' negative assessment of the direction of the economy remained negative in the October 2011 poll. The share of Texans who thought the state was on the wrong track decreased slightly, from 46 percent in May to 43 percent in October; the right direction number increased by the same amount, from 36 to 39%
The share of respondents who thought the US was on the "wrong track" increased sharply, from 63% in May to 75% in October ; the number who thought the country was on the right track dropped from 24 percent to 14 percent. As the line graph showing the trend line of the right direction-wrong track item illustrates, this is a significant negative turn in mood about the national economy.
A slight darkening of the mood of the state was also indirectly evident in respondents' assessments of the most important problems facing the country and the state. Choices of the most important problems facing the US continued to be dominated by the economy and unemployment.
At the state level, immigration and border security continued to dominate assessments of most important problems facing the state, though the economy and unemployment continued to be significant concerns.
The responses to both the national and state items also continued to show partisan patterns in the responses. In both settings, Democrats showed concern about the unemployment and the economy in larger numbers than Republicans., though the partisan gap is much more pronounced regarding unemployment. Republicans were much more likely to be worried about spending and the national debt as problems for the US, and immigration and border security at the state level. The overall responses to the "most important problem" items as well as breakdowns by partisan identification can be viewed in the "Most Important Problems (October 2011) graphic.
2.1 Trends
Retrospective Assessments of the National Economy
Texans' views on the state of the national economy are improving slowly and gradually, as the longitudinal chart comparing assessments as of October 2010 to previous assessments shows. Fifty-six percent of respondents answered that the national economy is worse off than it was a year ago, slightly more than (and statistically very close to) September's 52% , but overall, part of a steady decline for the peak of 86% in October 2008.. Conversely, 28% of respondents answered that the national economy is better off than it was a year ago, a marked increase from 2% (!) in the first July 2008 University of Texas poll.
Retrospective Assessments of Personal Economic Situations
No such clear trend can be discerned from respondents with respect to their personal economic situations. Much like in previous polls, large and statistically equal percentages of respondents say they and their families are either economically worse off or about the same as they were one year ago, while a significantly smaller percentage of respondents say they and their families are better off than they were one year ago.
Right Direction / Wrong Track
The primary characteristic of the responses to the "right direction/wrong track" item continues to be the gap between Texans' perception of the trajectories of the United States and of Texas.
2.2 Previous poll results
May 2011
As the state legislative session neared its end, a majority of Texas voters continued to support cutting the state budget, but do not back specific cuts to education and social programs that have taken center stage at the Capitol, according to the February, 2011 University of Texas at Austin/Texas Tribune poll.
The statewide poll of 800 registered voters was conducted May 11-18, as the legislature began final discussions about how to fill a budget gap estimated to be as great as $27 billion. The overall results of the survey have a margin of error of 3.46 percent.
When asked about how they prefer to balance the budget, 49 percent of Texans leaned toward budget cuts, with an additional 22 percent saying the budget shortfall should be made up entirely through budget cuts. Another 22 percent said the state's efforts should be evenly split between cutting spending and increasing revenue.
Yet the majority of survey respondents do not support some of the prominent cuts being considered by the legislature. Only 15 percent favored cutting the state's share of funding for primary and secondary education and 27 percent favored cutting state funding of higher education.
Given a list of possible cuts to balance the budget, 40 percent of voters favored ending funding for pre-kindergarten classes, the highest response among the proposed cuts. Thirty-five percent favored reducing state contributions to teacher and state employee retirement programs.
The poll respondents also opposed most new taxes by large margins. Ninety-four percent opposed introducing a state income tax on individuals and 88 percent opposed increasing the state sales tax rate beyond the current 6.25 percent. "Sin taxes" had more support: 49 percent of respondents supported increasing taxes on alcoholic beverages and 62 percent supported legalizing gambling and imposing taxes on gambling establishments.
After growing more negative about the national direction during the Spring of 2010, Texans' negative assessment of the direction of the economy remained stable. As the 82nd Legislature entered the final weeks of the regular legislative session, the public had turned more negative about the direction of the state and about their own economic well-being. The share of Texans who thought the state was on the wrong track, 46 percent, was ten points larger than those who thought the state was going in the right direction, 36 percent.
The share of respondents who thought the US was on the "wrong track" went significantly for the first time in several months, going down to a still negative 59% from 64% in October; the number who thought the country was on the right track was also virtually identical at 26%. As the line graph showing the trend line of the right direction-wrong track item illustrates, this is a significant reversal from the result a year ago. Assessments of both the national economy and respondents' their personal economic situations also grew more negative, though not as clearly as the right direction/wrong track numbers.
A slight darkening of the mood of the state as indicated in the poll was also indirectly evident in respondents assessments of the most important problems facing the country and the state. Choices of the most important problems facing the state continued to be dominated by the economy and unemployment, thought the national debt/budget deficit also registered in double figures (17 percent).
At the state level, immigration and border security continued to dominate assessments of most important problems facing the state, thought the education entered double figures for the first time in several months at 12 percent.
The responses to both the national and state items also continued to show partisan patterns in the responses. In both settings, Democrats showed concern about the unemployment and the economy in much larger numbers than Republicans. Republicans were much more likely to be worried about spending and the national debt as problems for the US, and immigration and border security at the state level. The overall responses to the "most important problem" items as well as breakdowns by partisan identification can be viewed in the "Most Important Problems (May 2011)" graphic.
October 2010
After growing more negative about the national direction during the Spring of 2010, Texans' negative assessment of the direction of the economy remained stable, if negative, between May and October. They remained, on the whole, ambivalent about the direction of the state and about their own economic well-being.
The share of respondents who thought the US was on the "wrong track" remained virtually unchanged at 64% in September (the result was a statistically identical 63% a month earlier, after registering 62% in May); the number who thought the country was on the right track was also virtually identical at 25%.
Texans' more specific assessment of economic progress in the United States, however, was slightly more negative. When as whether "the country is economically a lot better off, somewhat better off, about the same, somewhat worse off, or a lot worse off" compared to a year ago, 22% chose some degree of better off and 56% chose worse off, 33% a lot worse off. The negative assessments were 7% higher than in May, falling back into the neighborhood of February's 52%.
Texans views of the overall about the path Texas were also essentially identical to the assessment registered in May. Asked to render the traditional right direction / wrong track judgment about Texas, 45% said the state was headed in the right direction compared to 37% who judged Texas on the wrong track, statistically the same as May. Economic assessments of the state and their own economic situations were also little changed since February
Given these views, it's not surprising that, as in May, large numbers of Texans identified economic issues as the most important problems facing the nation. The top national problems cited by respondents were the economy (34%) and "unemployment / jobs" (18%); "federal spending/national debt" (13%) was the only other items to register in double figures, though political corruption/leadership was cited by 9% after being the most important problem for 12% a month earlier.
When asked to consider the most important problems facing the state, the national media attention generated by the Arizona immigration measures and violence along the Texas-Mexico border displaced the economic concerns that were at the top of the list of important problems, as they did in the May survey. Immigration was cited as the most important problem facing the state in 19% of the responses; border security was cited by 21%.
May 2010
Texans grew incrementally more negative about the direction of the country in the May 2010 poll while they they remained, on the whole, ambivalent about the direction of the state and about their own economic well-being.
The share of respondents who thought the US was on the "wrong track" increased to 62% from 56% in February 2010, while the number who thought the country was on the right track dropped from 31% to 27%. The sense of growing pessimism was also expressed in Texans' view of economic progress in the United States. When as whether "the country is economically a lot better off, somewhat better off, about the same, somewhat worse off, or a lot worse off" compared to a year ago, 28% chose some degree of better off and 47% chose worse off, 32% a lot worse off. The negative assessments were only slightly improved from 52% in February.
Texans were less pessimistic about the path Texas is on. Asked to render the traditional right direction / wrong track judgment about Texas, 45% said the state was headed in the right direction compared to 38% who judged Texas on the wrong track, statistically the same as February. Economic assessments of the state and their own economic situations were also little changed since February
While Texans were pessimistic about the path the country is on, they were less negative about Texas's straits than those of the country as a whole. Asked to render the traditional right direction / wrong track judgment about Texas, 43% said the state was headed in the right direction compared to 37% who judged Texas on the wrong track. These numbers were somewhat more positive than the corresponding 38%/39% judgment rendered in our October survey. Thirty-eight percent of Texans said they were economically worse off than a year ago, with about 42% reporting that they are about the same.
Texans made positive assessments of the overall approach reflected in Texas government. The survey asked, "Generally speaking, the way state government runs in Texas serves as a good model for other states to follow?" Fifty-eight percent agreed, 24% strongly, another indication of the tendency of some Texans to embrace Texas's low tax, low service model, even in the face of economic difficulty and ambiguity about the future.
Given these views, it's not surprising that large numbers of Texans identified economic issues as the most important problems facing the nation. The top national problems cited by respondents were the economy (22%), "federal spending/national debt" (18%), and "unemployment / jobs" (14%); taken together, the economic problems in this set totaled more then 50%.
When asked to consider the most important problems facing the state, the national media attention generated by the Arizona immigration measures and violence along the Texas-Mexico border displaced the economic concerns that were at the top of the list of important problems in the February survey. Immigration was cited as the most important problem facing the state in 23% of the responses, a four-point increase from February; border security was cited by 18%, also a four-point increase in the same interval. Combined economic concerns decreased nine percentage points in the same interval.
February 2010
Texans remained pessimistic about the direction the country is going in the February 2010 survey, administered among early signs of economic recovery at the national level and growing signs of a budget crisis in the state. The right direction number was essentially unchanged at 32%, and the wrong track number remained large, declining well within the poll's margin of error from 59% in October to 56% in February.
While Texans were pessimistic about the path the country is on, they were less negative about Texas's straits than those of the country as a whole. Asked to render the traditional right direction / wrong track judgment about Texas, 43% said the state was headed in the right direction compared to 37% who judged Texas on the wrong track. These numbers were somewhat more positive than the corresponding 38%/39% judgment rendered in our October survey.
Perceptions of economic progress and the future remain very tentative, edging toward the negative even as people see the state's economic difficulties as less severe than those of the nation. As in the October survey, more than 40% of Texans say that they and their families are economically worse off than one year ago (41% in February, 43% in October). And they are closely divided on the prospects of the state's economic situation improving: 38% believed economic conditions in Texas are getting better, 40% said they're getting worse, and 22% didn't know. These numbers are largely unchanged from our October survey.
Given these views, it's not surprising that large numbers of Texans identified economic issues as the most important problems facing both the nation and the state. The top national problems cited by respondents were the economy (24%), "federal spending/national debt" (15%), "political corruption/leadership" (15%) and" unemployment / jobs" (13)%; taken together, the economic problems in this set totaled more then 50%.
When asked to consider the most important problems, the comparable items were frequently cited (unemployment - 19%, the economy - 14%, state government spending - 3%). But economic issues were supplanted among many Texans by issues that have consistently been objects of concerns since we our survey's inception in 2008: immigration (16%) and border security (14%).
October 2009
A statewide survey of 800 adults conducted October 21-27, 2009 found Texans still negative about the national economy and their personal economic situation, yet showing signs of interests in the most contested of the 2010 race. The majority sentiment is one of skepticism about the direction of national politics, with a significant hardened faction of that majority expressing intense opposition to national policy and national political leadership.
The mood in the state remained generally negative in the survey, as has been the trend for the last year. At a broad level, 59% of those surveyed said the US was on the wrong track in response to the standard "right direction/wrong track" item. Fifty-nine percent said the US economy is worse off than a year ago, and 43 percent said they were personally worse off than a year ago. The negative assessment of the country has eased some since our June survey, when 69 percent said the country was worse off. The "better off" assessments edged up from only 11% in June to 24% in October. But the most intensely negative response offered was the most frequent one we received, with 36 percent of the negative assessments rating the economy "a lot worse off." Personal economic assessments were virtually unchanged between June and October.
As suggested above, intensely negative assessments, particularly when respondents were asked to respond to national matters and elected officials, recurred throughout the survey. President Obama's ratings differed little from his performance in the general election, with 41 approving and 52 disapproving of his overall job performance. The US Congress job approval rating from Texans was dismal, with 71% disapproving and only 13% approving. In both of these assessments the most negative option, "disapprove strongly", was the most common choice: 44% strongly disapproved of Obama, and 49% strongly disapproved of Congress.
At the state level, where we solicited approval ratings of Governor Perry, Senator Hutchison, and the Texas state legislature, assessments were less negative though hardly stellar. Governor Perry's approval numbers were at 36% approve (10% strongly/26% somewhat) versus 44 percent disapprove (26% strongly / 18% somewhat). Senator Hutchison elicited comparable positives with a 39% approval rating (10% strongly / 29% somewhat), but her disapproval rating was only 27% (10% strongly/17% somewhat) with a larger share choosing the neutral option (24%) than in the Governor's case (15%). The Texas state legislature fared much better than their counterparts in Washington DC: 31% approved of the way the Texas Legislature has been handling its job (3% strongly/28% somewhat). It's a testament to how poorly the US Congress is viewed that they would probably be happy to have the 36% negative rating the Texas Legislature earned (15% strongly disapproving/21% somewhat disapproving).
The negative assessments of both the economic environment and political leadership were likely influenced by Texans' focus on economic problems. When asked to identify the most important problems facing the country, 38% chose the economy and unemployment, with 15% citing federal spending and the national debt, another 15% choosing political corruption/leadership, and 13% choosing health care. No other issue registered in double digits. When asked to identify the most important state problems, the economy and employment top the list at 28% if combined, with immigration following at 19% and border security at 13%. (The last two were considered separately due to the prevalence of predominantly drug trafficking crime in some areas of the Texas border.)
With the economy at the top of Texans' list of most important problems facing both the nation and the state, but with widespread disapproval of political executives and Congress much in evidence, we asked respondents about whether national and state governments were helping on the economic front. When asked if the federal government was "helping to bring the economy out of recession, making it harder for the economy to recover from recession, or not doing much either way," 28% thought the federal government was helping, 43% thought the federal government was making it harder, and 23% thought federal efforts were a wash. So two-thirds either think the federal government is hurting or irrelevant.
Interestingly enough, respondents seemed to either recognize the comparatively reduced role of state government in Texas (or perhaps just rated it less effective), but in either case, 43% thought state government wasn't having much impact, 23% thought the state was helping, and only 17% thought state government was making recovery harder.
Health care is the most prominent issue on the Congressional agenda right now, so we also elicited approval ratings related to the handling of health care by the president and the parties in Congress. These results were also negative, and (once again) intensely so. When asked whether they approved or disapproved of "the way President Obama and the Democrats in Congress are handling the issue of health care," 58% disapproved (with 49% disapproving strongly) and 37% approved (with 13% approving strongly). Asked about how "Republicans in Congress" are handling the issue, 54% disapproved, with only 33% approving and 12% saying they didn't know. In short, no one inside the Beltway is viewed with much affection by registered voters in the Lone Star state.
June 2009
During June 2009, Texans overwhelmingly expressed concern about the current state of the country, but they were more divided in their views on whether conditions would improve in the future. Seventy-five percent of survey takers responded that the words "anxious" or "worried" described their feelings about national conditions either "well" or "somewhat well." However, 53% of survey takers also responded that the words "hopeful" or "optimistic" described their feelings to the same degree.
Economic issues continued to be of greatest concern for Texans. When asked to identify the most important problem facing the country, a majority of Texans listed the nation's economy in general (29%), followed by unemployment/jobs (15%), federal spending/national debt (15%), and political corruption/leadership (12%).
As has been the case in previous UT polls, respondents were more likely to render negative evaluations of the country's economic situation than of their own. Sixty-nine percent of respondents said that nation's economy was either "somewhat worse off" or "a lot worse off" than one year ago. However, only 43% of the respondents said that their personal economic situations were "somewhat worse off" or "a lot worse off" than one year ago. An additional 40% of respondents said their personal economic situations were "about the same" as they were one year ago, and 17% of respondents said their personal economic conditions were either somewhat or a lot better off.
October 2008
No major sea changes appear to be at work in the state's overall political mood between July 2008 and October 2008. As in the July survey, Texans in October 2008 continued to express negative views of the national economy. But while they were not especially optimistic, they seemed somewhat less negative about their own economic situations. With the politics of the presidential election in the air and dominating news coverage, most Texans continued to identify as political conservatives and moderates.
At nearly every opportunity, most Texans were negative when asked about the economic well-being of the country. The overall negative assessment of the national economy rose from 81% to 89% between July and October. Respondents' assessments of their personal economic situation remained more positive overall than their assessment of the nation, with 45.5% saying they were "worse off" than a year ago, about 37% reporting they were "about the same," and 17.5% reporting that they were "better off." The accompanying charts illustrate these patterns.
Texans continued to show increasing concern about the economy when asked open-ended questions about the most important issues facing the United States and facing Texas . These questions, which require respondents to type in their own responses rather than choose from a list of options, found Texans overwhelming volunteering that the found the economy the most pressing issue facing both the country and the state. As in the July survey, a clear majority of Texans chose the economy as the major problem facing the nation , though respondents most frequently cited the economy as the main state problem, too (27% in both surveys).
A consistent core of respondents also appear to remain focused on immigration as a state issue. About a quarter of respondents in both surveys cited immigration as the most important issue facing Texas. The decline in prices at the gas pumps also seems to have fueled a decline in concern about gas prices and energy, from 17% in in the July survey to 5% in October.
With election day approaching and most eyes on the presidential contest -- the survey was administered October 15-22 -- Texans continued to think of themselves as "conservative" or "moderate" in significant numbers. Forty eight percent of survey respondents identified themselves as conservative, 20% as liberal, and 26% as moderate (6% didn't know or didn't respond).
As with the July 2008 poll, this survey found registered voters identifying with the two major parties in roughly equal numbers, though in July Democrats edged out Republicans 39%-33%, while in the October results Republican responses edged out Democratic ones 37%-35%. Self-identified independents leaned slightly more toward Republicans as they did in July.
July 2008
Texans registered the same kind and degree of concern about the country and the economy that had been evident in national polls around this time period. At nearly every opportunity, Texans were largely negative when asked about their well-being or how the country is doing. In addition to glum right direction/wrong direction responses, Texans gave overwhelmingly negative assessments of the country's economic picture. When asked "how is the economic well-being of the country compared to one year ago," only 2% answered "better off," with 81% answering "worse off" (15% responded about the same). Their assessment of their own personal well-being was somewhat better: 17% said they were better off than one year ago, with 48% responding that they were worse off and 34% reporting that they were doing about the same. When asked, "do you think your children will be better off than you are, worse off, or about the same economically?", respondents were somewhat more sanguine: 33% expected their children to be better off and 28% worse off. Fourteen percent responded "about the same, but 26% didn't know.
The ideological spectrum in Texas in July 2008 continued to tilt in a conservative direction. Thirty-nine percent of survey respondents identified themselves as conservative, 20 percent as liberal, and 41 percent as moderate. This survey found registered voters identifying with the two major parties in roughly equal numbers, but with self-identified independents leaning slightly more toward Republicans (see the pie chart "Party Breakdown (Registered)" in this set of charts).
2.3 Most Important Problem Archive
In every poll that we have conducted for the Texas Politics Project (and The Texas Tribune ), we have asked respondents to name the most important problem facing the country and the most important problem facing Texas. For the first three polls that were conducted, these questions were open-ended -- meaning that respondents could write in their responses, which were then coded. Since June 2009, we have provided respondents with a long list of possible answers to both questions. In general, the items on the lists have been consistent, though we have occasionally added items that had recently emerged onto the national or state scene (e.g., the gulf oil spill or Texas's budget shortfall) and deleted items that had become irrelevant.
Results for both the national and state questions have been fairly consistent over time, though there have also been some significant changes. With respect to the most important problem facing the country, answer choices related to the economy or unemployment have always been the most popular. During the initial surveys in 2008 and early 2009, answer choices related to energy issues (gas prices, energy independence, etc.) as well as national security issues (the war in Iraq, terrorism, etc.) were also salient to our respondents, but they have since receded in importance. In their place, concerns about federal spending and the national debt, as well as about political corruption and leadership in Washington, have risen dramatically.
With respect to the most important problem facing Texas, answer choices related to the economy have also been very popular, but they have generally been equally popular to (and have at times been eclipsed by) answer choices related to immigration and border security. In recent surveys, the state's budget shortfall and education have also become frequently-chosen answers.
3. Assessments of Political Leaders: October, 2009
President Obama's ratings differed little from his performance in the general election, with 41 approving and 52 disapproving of his overall job performance. The US Congress job approval rating from Texans was the most negative of all of the assessments: 71% disapproved and only 13% approved. In both of these assessments the most negative option, "disapprove strongly", was the most common choice: 44% strongly disapproved of Obama, and 49% strongly disapproved of Congress.
At the state level, where we solicited approval ratings of Governor Perry, Senator Hutchison, and the Texas state legislature, assessments were less negative though still tepid. Governor Perry's approval numbers were at 36% approve (10% strongly/26% somewhat) versus 44% disapprove (26% strongly / 18% somewhat). Senator Hutchison elicited comparable positives with a 39% approval rating (10% strongly / 29% somewhat), but her disapproval rating was only 27% (10% strongly/17% somewhat) with a larger share choosing the neutral option (24%) than in the Governor's case (15%).
The Texas state legislature fared much better than their counterparts in Washington DC: 31% approved of the way the Texas Legislature has been handling its job (3% strongly/28% somewhat). Their state legislature's disapproval the 36% (15% stronglydisapproving/21% somewhat disapproving).
3. Assessments of Political Leaders: October, 2009
The survey solicited approval ratings of Governor Perry, Senator Hutchison, and the Texas state legislature The assessments of state level political leadership were less negative though hardly stellar. Governor Perry's approval numbers were at 36% approve (10% strongly/26% somewhat) versus 44 percent disapprove (26 strongly / 18 somewhat). Senator Hutchison elicited comparable positives with a 39% approval rating (10% strongly / 29% somewhat), but her disapproval rating was only 27% (10% strongly/17% somewhat) with a larger share choosing the neutral option (24%) than in the Governor's case (15%).
The Texas state legislature fared much better than their counterparts in Washington DC: 31% approved of the way the Texas Legislature has been handling its job (3% strongly/28% somewhat). The Texas Legislature earned a 36% negative rating (15% stronglydisapproving/21% somewhat disapproving) and a 31% positive rating, with 25% neither approving or disapproving.
President Obama's ratings differed little from his performance in the general election, with 41 approving and 52 disapproving of his overall job performance. The US Congress job approval rating from Texans were the most negative assessments of the suvbery, with 71% disapproving and only 13% approving. In both of these assessments the most negative option, "disapprove strongly", was the most common choice: 44% strongly disapproved of Obama, and 49% strongly disapproved of Congress.
3. Assessments of Political Leaders (October, 2011)
The October 2011 UT/Texas Tribune survey finds minor changes in the job performance assessments of Governor Rick Perry and President Barack Obama since the February 2011 survey. The Governor's approval rate was 39%, with 44% disapproving, a slight drop in his overall ratings, as the approval ratings trend chart illustrates. President Obama remained stalled in remarkably negative territory, with 57% disapproving -- 49% strongly -- as the chart shows, a slight overall decline in his popularity.
The individual features to the right also contain cross tabulations of approvals of each leader by party identification, political ideology, and race.
With Governor Rick Perry campaigning for the Republican presidential nomination, the October 2011 poll also contained several items probing Texans' views of the governor, his campaign message, and the impact of his campaign on the nation's view of Texas. When asked how well they thought a variety of terms described Governor Perry, respondents assigned the highest overall scores to "conservative" and "career politician." The mean scores of the negative terms were below the midpoint (self-serving, corrupt), though some of the positive terms hovered around the neutral midpoint of 5 - for example, the mean score for the term "honest" was 5.05.
3.1 Trends
Approval of Governor Rick Perry
Job approval numbers for Governor Perry have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range over the UT and UT/Texas Tribune polls administered between October 2008 and May 2010. In the latest installation of the poll, Governor Perry's approval rating increased slightly, to 42% from 38%, and his disapproval rating decreased slightly. from 40% to 39%.
Approval of President Barack Obama
After remaining steady for the duration of his presidency, President Obama's job approval rating decreased outside of the margin of error of the survey, dropping to 35% in May 2010 from 41% in February 2010. There has been a large increase in the President's negative job approvals, from 50% to 58% overall, including a ten-point increase in the strong disapprovals, from 40% to 50%.
3.2 Previous Poll Results
October 2009
Respondents were asked about their approval of political leaders in the nation and the state. Given the predominance of the national election and the absence of statewide leadership on the ballot, the survey focused primarily on national leadership. Overall, the general mood of discontent with political leadership evident in national polls is also manifest in Texas.
Approval numbers
President George W. Bush's approval numbers are slightly higher in Texas than they have been nationally, but they are still quite low. Thirty-four percent of the sample approved of how he "has been handling his job as president, with just under 10 percent approving "strongly." (The approval number increased slightly to 36% among registered voters.) Fifty-five percent disapproved, with 38.7 percent disapproving strongly. These numbers are notable in that they come in a survey that otherwise found strong support for other Republican leaders, including presidential candidate John McCain.
Texans took a very dim view of the US Congress in the survey. When asked whether they approved or disapproved of Congress's handling of the economy and energy, responses were resoundingly negative. About three quarters of the respondents disapproved in both areas (74% on the economy, 75% on energy), with only 8% and 7% approving of Congress's performance on the economy and energy, respectively.
With the national election garnering most of voters' attention, we only asked one state level approval question. When asked, "do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Perry has been handling his job as governor," 37% registered approval, with 11 % approving strongly; 31% disapproved, and 32.4% neither approved nor disapproved.
Feeling Thermometers
Feeling thermometers measure emotional evaluations of individuals toward political leaders. In this survey, individuals were asked to rate leaders on a scale of 0 to 100 degrees. A rating of 100 degrees means that they feel extremely favorable and warm toward a given political figure. A rating of 0 degrees means that they feel extremely unfavorable and cold toward the figure. A rating of 50 degrees is given if individuals don't feel particularly warm or cold toward the figure.
Compared to the thermometer readings in our July 2008 poll, responses to the feeling thermometers may be reflecting Texans increased attention to the campaign and the upcoming election. Among national figures, McCain's strong showing may be driven by the jump in his average rating: his mean thermometer score was 53.8 degrees in July, but improved to 60.1 in October. Sarah Palin scored comparably (59.9), while Barack Obama's average declined by about one degree.
Among statewide political leaders, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison continued to be rated more warmly than other leaders--her score of 60.8 degrees was the highest of any of the figures offered to respondents. Governor Rick Perry edged into warm territory with a 51.1 degree average. Both US Senate candidates also scored on the warm side of the thermometer, with incumbent Republican John Cornyn registering an average of 58.6 degrees and Democratic Challenger Rick Noriega averaging 53.1 degrees.
Information about Barack Obama
Barack Obama's religion has been the subject of much discussion in the media. Though Obama is a practicing Protestant, well-publicized emails and word of mouth campaigns inaccurately identifying him as a Muslim have been circulated since the early days of his candidacy. In order to gauge public awareness of Obama's religion, we asked respondents, "What do you believe Barack Obama's religion to be?" A plurality, 45.5%, chose the "Protestant" option, and 28 % couldn't say. Twenty percent, however, said that Obama is a Muslim.
February-March 2009
Two distinct sets of questions allow us some leverage on how Texans view their political leaders. First, respondents were asked to use a 0-100 "thermometer" scale to rate how favorably (or unfavorably) they viewed national and statewide political figures. By and large, Texans were mildly positive towards their leaders. President Barack Obama received a mean rating of 53, while Alaska governor Sarah Palin received a 50. At the state level, Governor Rick Perry and Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst each received a 51, while Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn received 57 and 55, respectively. Newly elected speaker Joe Straus received a 44, but a majority of respondents indicated they were not familiar enough with him to offer a rating.
Second, we asked standard "approve/disapprove" job performance questions. When asked to rate the president and U.S. Congress, Texans apparently believe the "honeymoon" period is just about over (if there ever was one in a state the president lost by a large margin in 2008) . President Obama garners mixed ratings, with 45% approving of his performance and 42% disapproving. Reactions coincide with party leanings, as Democrats are quite supportive while Republicans are mildly disapproving. With respect to the U.S. Congress, the mood is negative: 25% approve and 53% disapprove (37% "strongly" disapprove). No political or demographic groups are particularly supportive of the performance of those on Capitol Hill.
Closer to home, 40% approve of Rick Perry's job performance, while 34% disapprove. It is interesting that after more than eight years in office, 27% neither approve nor disapprove of Perry's performance. His 40% approval rating is a slight improvement on his 2008 numbers.
Meanwhile, ratings of the Texas legislature are the essence of ambivalence. Thirty percent approve, while 30% disapprove and 40% say they neither approve nor disapprove. Moreover, only 10% register "strong" opinions one way or the other.
3.2 Previous poll results
October 2011
After growing more negative about the national direction during the Spring of 2010, Texans' negative assessment of the direction of the economy remained stable. As the 82nd Legislature entered the final weeks of the regular legislative session, the public had turned more negative about the direction of the state and about their own economic well-being. The share of Texans who thought the state was on the wrong track, 46 percent, was ten points larger than those who thought the state was going in the right direction, 36 percent.
The share of respondents who thought the US was on the "wrong track" went significantly for the first time in several months, going down to a still negative 59% from 64% in October; the number who thought the country was on the right track was also virtually identical at 26%. As the line graph showing the trend line of the right direction-wrong track item illustrates, this is a significant reversal from the result a year ago. Assessments of both the national economy and respondents' their personal economic situations also grew more negative, though not as clearly as the right direction/wrong track numbers.
A slight darkening of the mood of the state as indicated in the poll was also indirectly evident in respondents' assessments of the most important problems facing the country and the state. Choices of the most important problems facing the US continued to be dominated by the economy and unemployment, thought the national debt/budget deficit also registered in double figures (17 percent).
At the state level, immigration and border security continued to dominate assessments of most important problems facing the state, though the economy and unemployment continued to be significant concerns.
The responses to both the national and state items also continued to show partisan patterns in the responses. In both settings, Democrats showed concern about the unemployment and the economy in much larger numbers than Republicans. Republicans were much more likely to be worried about spending and the national debt as problems for the US, and immigration and border security at the state level. The overall responses to the "most important problem" items as well as breakdowns by partisan identification can be viewed in the "Most Important Problems (May 2011)" graphic.
May 2011
The May 2011 UT/Texas Tribune survey found only minor changes in the job performance assessments of Governor Rick Perry and President Barack Obama since the February 2011 survey. The Governor's approval rate was 41%, with 42% disapproving, a slight improvement in his overall ratings, as the approval ratings trend chart illustrates. President Obama remained stalled in remarkably negative territory, with 55% disapproving -- 46% strongly -- as the chart shows, almost identical to his ratings in February. There appears to have been some slight increase in the strength of his approval.
The individual features to the right also contain cross tabulations of approvals of each leader by party identification, political ideology, and race
May 2010
A dip in President Obama's approval numbers and a slight improvement in Governor Perry's job approval also suggest at least stabilization of Republican strength in Texas. The President's positive job assessments decreased to 35% from 41% in February, with 16% approving somewhat and 19% strongly approving. The striking thing in the assessment of the President, however, is the intensity within his overall disapproval numbers: of the 58% who said they disapprove, 50% strongly disapprove of the job he has done as president, a ten-point increase in the strong disapproval number in February. Obama's "strong disapproval" numbers are even higher among white/Anglo respondents (65%, with an overall white disapproval share of 73%) and true independents (55% strong/66% overall disapprove), two groups likely to be key to any Republican efforts to tie Texas Democrats to the national Democratic leadership.
Governor Perry's approval number improved, albeit just outside the margin of error, from 38% in February to 42% in May. He, too, still suffers the judgment of a cranky electorate, with strong approvals at 13% surpassed by strong disapprovals at 23%. But with 16% neither approving nor disapproving, positive judgments of his job performance edged out negative assessments 42%-39%. While these numbers are not stellar, they show no signs of erosion in the governor's previous support, and contrast with Obama's worsening overall position in Texas.
February 2010
President Obama's ratings remained almost identical to his numbers in our October 2010 survey, with 41% approving and 50% disapproving. The extent of strong disapproval declined slightly in the same , but was still notable at 40%.
The survey again solicited approval ratings of Governor Perry and Senator Hutchison. The assessments of state level political leadership were once again less negative than of national leadership though not stellar. Thirty-eight percent approved of the job Governor Perry has done, with 40% disapproving and 17% neither approving nor disapproving. In the midst of a hotly contested primary contest, Governor Perry scored much better among self-identified Republican primary voters, with a much stronger 62% approve/23% disapprove/13% disapprove breakdown. Democrats, not surprisingly, were less approving (15%/62%/19%). Independents as a group were less negative than Democrats, though still yielded a net negative assessment of the governor (26%/50%/20%). All these figures can be reviewed in this bar chart.
As in the October UT/Texas Tribune polling, Senator Hutchison elicited comparable positives with a 36% approval rating (8% strongly / 28% somewhat), but her disapproval rating had increased from 27% to 35%(10% strongly/17% somewhat) with 23% neutral on the matter.
October 2009
President Obama's ratings differed little from his performance in the general election, with 41 approving and 52 disapproving of his overall job performance. The US Congress job approval rating from Texans were the most negative assessments of the suvbery, with 71% disapproving and only 13% approving. In both of these assessments the most negative option, "disapprove strongly", was the most common choice: 44% strongly disapproved of Obama, and 49% strongly disapproved of Congress.
The survey solicited approval ratings of Governor Perry, Senator Hutchison, and the Texas state legislature The assessments of state level political leadership were less negative though hardly stellar. Governor Perry's approval numbers were at 36% approve (10% strongly/26% somewhat) versus 44 percent disapprove (26 strongly / 18 somewhat). Senator Hutchison elicited comparable positives with a 39% approval rating (10% strongly / 29% somewhat), but her disapproval rating was only 27% (10% strongly/17% somewhat) with a larger share choosing the neutral option (24%) than in the Governor's case (15%).
The Texas state legislature fared much better than their counterparts in Washington DC: 31% approved of the way the Texas Legislature has been handling its job (3% strongly/28% somewhat). The Texas Legislature earned a 36% negative rating (15% stronglydisapproving/21% somewhat disapproving) and a 31% positive rating, with 25% neither approving or disapproving.
July 2009
Governor Rick Perry
Poll results suggest that Texans' assessments of Gov. Rick Perry's performance are all over the map. 42% of respondents approve of the job that Perry is doing, with 13% approving strongly and 29% approving somewhat. 32% of respondents disapprove of the job Perry is doing, with 17% disapproving strongly and 15% disapproving somewhat. Still, 28% of respondents express no opinion on his performance, a fairly large percentage given Perry's long stint in office. Republicans in the survey are far more likely to approve of Perry's performance than disapprove, Democrats are far more likely to disapprove than approve, and independents are slightly more likely to disapprove than approve.
State Legislature
Poll results also suggest that Texans are closely divided over the performance of the state's legislature, but that a large number of Texans may not have sufficient knowledge about current events in state government to form an opinion. Equal percentages of respondents (30%) approved and disapproved of the state legislature's performance, while 40% of respondents refused to deliver an opinion on it.
President Barack Obama
Results demonstrate that President Barack Obama has become a highly polarizing figure inside Texas. Texans are closely divided over the president's performance, with a slightly greater percentage of respondents indicating some level of disapproval than some level of approval. Republican and Democratic identifiers, however, diverge enormously in their assessments of the president. 82% of Republicans express some level of disapproval with the president, while 83% of Democrats express some level of approval. Independents, on the other hand, split almost evenly in their assessments.
U.S. Congress
Finally, results indicate that Congress remains quite unpopular among Texans. 37% of respondents express strong disapproval of the performance of Congress, and another 15% somewhat disapprove. Conversely, a mere 4% of respondents express strong approval of Congress's performance, while another 22% somewhat approve. Republicans and independents alike overwhelmingly express some level of disapproval of Congress, while Democrats are more likely to express approval than disapproval.
October 2008
Respondents were asked about their approval of political leaders in the nation and the state. Given the predominance of the national election and the absence of statewide leadership on the ballot, the survey focused primarily on national leadership. Overall, the general mood of discontent with political leadership evident in national polls is also manifest in Texas.
Approval numbers
President George W. Bush's approval numbers are slightly higher in Texas than they have been nationally, but they are still quite low. Thirty-four percent of the sample approved of how he "has been handling his job as president, with just under 10 percent approving "strongly." (The approval number increased slightly to 36% among registered voters.) Fifty-five percent disapproved, with 38.7 percent disapproving strongly. These numbers are notable in that they come in a survey that otherwise found strong support for other Republican leaders, including presidential candidate John McCain.
Texans took a very dim view of the US Congress in the survey. When asked whether they approved or disapproved of Congress's handling of the economy and energy, responses were resoundingly negative. About three quarters of the respondents disapproved in both areas (74% on the economy, 75% on energy), with only 8% and 7% approving of Congress's performance on the economy and energy, respectively.
With the national election garnering most of voters' attention, we only asked one state level approval question. When asked, "do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Perry has been handling his job as governor," 37% registered approval, with 11 % approving strongly; 31% disapproved, and 32.4% neither approved nor disapproved.
Feeling Thermometers
Feeling thermometers measure emotional evaluations of individuals toward political leaders. In this survey, individuals were asked to rate leaders on a scale of 0 to 100 degrees. A rating of 100 degrees means that they feel extremely favorable and warm toward a given political figure. A rating of 0 degrees means that they feel extremely unfavorable and cold toward the figure. A rating of 50 degrees is given if individuals don't feel particularly warm or cold toward the figure.
Compared to the thermometer readings in our July 2008 poll, responses to the feeling thermometers may be reflecting Texans increased attention to the campaign and the upcoming election. Among national figures, McCain's strong showing may be driven by the jump in his average rating: his mean thermometer score was 53.8 degrees in July, but improved to 60.1 in October. Sarah Palin scored comparably (59.9), while Barack Obama's average declined by about one degree.
Among statewide political leaders, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison continued to be rated more warmly than other leaders--her score of 60.8 degrees was the highest of any of the figures offered to respondents. Governor Rick Perry edged into warm territory with a 51.1 degree average. Both US Senate candidates also scored on the warm side of the thermometer, with incumbent Republican John Cornyn registering an average of 58.6 degrees and Democratic Challenger Rick Noriega averaging 53.1 degrees.
Information about Barack Obama
Barack Obama's religion has been the subject of much discussion in the media. Though Obama is a practicing Protestant, well-publicized emails and word of mouth campaigns inaccurately identifying him as a Muslim have been circulated since the early days of his candidacy. In order to gauge public awareness of Obama's religion, we asked respondents, "What do you believe Barack Obama's religion to be?" A plurality, 45.5%, chose the "Protestant" option, and 28 % couldn't say. Twenty percent, however, said that Obama is a Muslim.
February-March 2009
Two distinct sets of questions allow us some leverage on how Texans view their political leaders. First, respondents were asked to use a 0-100 "thermometer" scale to rate how favorably (or unfavorably) they viewed national and statewide political figures. By and large, Texans were mildly positive towards their leaders. President Barack Obama received a mean rating of 53, while Alaska governor Sarah Palin received a 50. At the state level, Governor Rick Perry and Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst each received a 51, while Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn received 57 and 55, respectively. Newly elected speaker Joe Straus received a 44, but a majority of respondents indicated they were not familiar enough with him to offer a rating.
Second, we asked standard "approve/disapprove" job performance questions. When asked to rate the president and U.S. Congress, Texans apparently believe the "honeymoon" period is just about over (if there ever was one in a state the president lost by a large margin in 2008) . President Obama garners mixed ratings, with 45% approving of his performance and 42% disapproving. Reactions coincide with party leanings, as Democrats are quite supportive while Republicans are mildly disapproving. With respect to the U.S. Congress, the mood is negative: 25% approve and 53% disapprove (37% "strongly" disapprove). No political or demographic groups are particularly supportive of the performance of those on Capitol Hill.
Closer to home, 40% approve of Rick Perry's job performance, while 34% disapprove. It is interesting that after more than eight years in office, 27% neither approve nor disapprove of Perry's performance. His 40% approval rating is a slight improvement on his 2008 numbers.
Meanwhile, ratings of the Texas legislature are the essence of ambivalence. Thirty percent approve, while 30% disapprove and 40% say they neither approve nor disapprove. Moreover, only 10% register "strong" opinions one way or the other.
4. 2012 Elections (May 2011)
The May 2011 UT/Texas Tribune Poll found that most Texans remain inattentive to, or at least undecided about, the 2012 elections. The poll contained questions about primary preferences in the Democratic and Republican primary races to fill the US Senate seat to be vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison, as well as in the Republican primary race for the presidential nomination.
US Senate Primary Races
In a trial match-up among several announced candidates in the Republican Party, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst led the field of eight options (including an unnamed Republican) as the choice of 25 percent of the survey respondents. No other candidate included broke double figures, and 50% said they didn't know. These results are within the margin of error of the results from the February poll.
Results on the Democratic side of the Senate were also made ambiguous by an even larger number of undecided responses (63 percent). The field of candidates included recently announced candidate Ricardo Sanchez, who led the field with 14 percent. Sanchez was followed by former US Congressman Chet Edwards, (11 percent), former US Congressman Chris Bell (7 percent) and former Comptroller John Sharp (6 percent). Because of the small Democratic subsample (252), the margin of error was a relatively large +/- 6.17.
Republican Presidential Primary Race
The contest to gain the nomination to be the Republican candidate in the 2012 presidential election remains a fluid contest with a mixture of declared and possible candidates. Three candidates included as options on the May 2011 -- Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and Mitch Daniels -- announced they would not be candidates during or after data collection. Huckabee was one of the more popular responses with 10%, slightly behind Sarah Palin (12 percent) and Newt Gingrich (11 percent). But votes were widely distributed among the field of options, suggesting that no consensus candidate has emerged among the field of declared candidates and possible entrants.
Tentative Generic Match-up Between President Obama and Republican Candidate
In a generic presidential match-up between President Barack Obama and an unnamed Republican candidate, the Republican candidate led 48%-30% with 11 percent choosing someone else and 12 percent "don't know." As the second tab of the feature "Vote Intention in the 2012 Presidential Election (May 2011)" illustrates, self-described moderates favored Obama 45%-19%, with 37% choosing either "someone else" or "don't know."
When presidential preferences in the survey are broken down according to responses to a generic congressional match-up item including a choice for a hypothetical Tea Party candidate, the similarities in those who chose the Republican candidate and those who expressed support for the Tea Party label becomes apparent: support among both groups for the Republican candidate at the presidential level is very high and statistically the same. (See the third tab in the feature.)
4.1 2012 Elections (Archive)
February 2011
Not surprisingly, the February 2011 UT/Texas Tribune Poll found most Texans not particularly decisive about the Senate race kicked off by US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison's announcement that she would not be seeking reelection in 2012.
In a trial head-to-head match-up among several announced candidates in the Republican Party, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst led the pack as the choice of 27% of the survey respondents. No other candidate included broke double figures, and 52% said they didn't know.
Results on the Democratic side were even more ambiguous, with 2006 gubernatorial candidate and former US Congressman Chris Bell chosen by 16%, former US Congressman Chet Edwards the preferred choice of 13%, and former Comptroller John Sharp the choice of 12%. The undecided were even larger on the Democratic side, at 59%.
4.2 2010 Election Cycle Archive
October 2010
The October 2010 poll showed Rick Perry leading Bill White 50 percent to 40 percent among self-reporting registered voters, with Republican candidates in other statewide races enjoying double-digit leads and the results of the generic congressional ballot favoring the Republican Party by 18 points.
The Perry-White result includes the responses to a follow-up question posed to those who responded "don't know" about their preference for governor. This was a different approach from the September UT/Tribune poll, conducted at a time when we thought many voters had yet to turn their attention to the election. About 15 percent of the October sample said they were undecided in their initial response. When we pressed respondents to express a preference, equal numbers chose Perry and White, adding 5.4 percent to each candidate's totals. Libertarian Kathie Glass gained an additional 2 percent from these "pushed" undecided respondents, and Deb Shafto, the Green candidate, gained another point. This left the undecided number at less than a percent.
May 2010
With slightly less than six months before the November 2010 general election, the May 2010 statewide poll showed Rick Perry leading Bill White by a 9-point margin, 44%-35%, with 15% undecided and 7% hoping for an unidentified someone else. This margin was about the same as the gap between them in a then-hypothetical match up between the two candidates put before those surveyed in the February UT/Texas Tribune poll.
Further down ballot in races for other statewide offices, Republican candidates, most of whom are incumbents, enjoyed double-digit leads ranging from 11 to 19 points, with all races below the top of the ticket exhibiting 20% or more undecided. Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst's held a 14-point lead (44-30) over challenger Linda Chavez-Thompson, and incumbent Greg Abbot's led Barbara Ann Radnofsky by 19 points (47-28).
The generic match-ups between unnamed Democratic and Republican candidates for the state legislature and the US Congress showed slightly more significant advantages for the Republican Party as summer begins. When asked, If the 2010 election for the Texas state legislature in your district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or haven't you thought enough about it to have an opinion?", Republican candidates displayed a 44%-33% edge over Democrats, with 18% undecided and 5% preferring someone else. Asked the same question about Congressional races, Republicans enjoyed a slightly larger edge (45%-34%), with 15% undecided and 5% again preferring someone else.
February 2010
The February 2010 UT-Austin/Texas Tribune Poll showed Governor Rick Perry extending his lead over Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in a gubernatorial primary upended by the unexpected success of Debra Medina. Bill White led Farouk Shami by large margin in Democratic primary race.
[Note: the election,which concluded March 2, about a month after the survey was conducted, resulted in Perry winning 51%, Hutchison 30%, and Medina 19%. Bill White received 76% of the vote to Farouk Shami's 13% in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. For complete official results of the primary elections, see the [link]1086|Secretary of State Elections Division[/link] site. The [link]1087|Texas Tribune 2010 Primary Elections Page[/link] has much of the same information plus informative interactive maps with easily view county-level results from the gubernatorial primary.]
The poll, conducted from February 1-7, showed Governor Perry holding a 24-point lead over Senator Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary contest, with Debra Medina posing a surprisingly strong challenge to Hutchison for second place. Perry garnered 45% of the vote, Hutchison 21%, Debra Medina 19%, with 16% undecided. The sample of 366 Republican primary voters has a margin of error of +/- 5.12 percentage points. The data from the survey, however, was conducted prior Medina's controversial remarks, covered widely by the news media, about the September 11 attacks.
In the Democratic primary, Houston Mayor Bill White has a 48%-14% advantage over businessman Farouk Shami. Thirty-eight percent of the Democratic sampled chose "don't know." The sample of 265 Democratic primary voters has a margin of error of +/- 6.02 percentage points.
In the Democratic primary for Attorney General, Linda Chavez-Thompson leads Ronnie Earle 18%-16% (an edge well within the margin of error), with Marc Katz claiming 3% of the vote. In the Agriculture Commissioner race, Kinky Friedman holds a slight edge over Hank Gilbert 32%-27%. The large numbers of "don't know" responses in the Democratic races (38% for Governor; 58% for Lt. Governor; 41% for Ag Commissioner, 41%) underscore the comparative lack of paid advertising and earned media attention to these races.
A follow up item to the gubernatorial ballot questions asked undecided voters to say who they would vote for if they had to choose. Both Perry and White received enough support from currently undecided voters to push them just past the 50% threshold, indicating that we may not see a run-off election if current trends hold.
In general election match ups between the main Democratic candidates and all three GOP candidates, the Republicans generally won comfortably. Among the 800 registered voters surveyed, both Perry and Hutchison best White by a nine-point margin (44%-35% and 43%-34%, respectively). This lead is just outside the 3.46 margin of error. Interestingly, Medina ties White (36%-36%), with a larger proportion of "don't know" or "someone else" responses (21%/9%).
Senator Hutchison has announced that she plans to resign her seat whatever the outcome of her gubernatorial campaign, and preferences in the potential race to succeed her remain murky. Nearly half of Lone Star voters (47%) still don't know who they would choose among the candidates currently being discussed. Bill White's decision to seek the gubernatorial nomination left John Sharp as the only declared Democrat in the hypothetical race, which contributes to Sharp holding 29% of the vote, the largest share among the candidates tested. Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, who at this point is seeking reelection and is not an announced candidate for the Senate seat, had the second highest total with 15%. The other Republican candidates split the remaining 9%, receiving between 1% and 3% each. Not surprisingly, this is a very undeveloped race.
Some of the numbers in the first wave of results point to just how complex Texas politics are as the state heads into the last few weeks of the primary election campaign. Some things are not surprising: in generic trial ballots for Congress and the state legislature, the Republicans win by 9 points and 7 points, respectively, with 21% of the electorate saying they are undecided. Given the choice of a hypothetical Tea Party movement candidate in the Congressional ballot, the Democratic number is unchanged-the Republican number, however, falls from 43% to 21%, the Tea Party candidate is chosen by 16%, and percentage of undecideds leaps 6 points to 27%. Viewed in conjunction with Medina's surge, the potential of the Tea Party-movement to shake-up Texas politics seems very real.
October 2009
Republican Gubernatorial Primary
The October 2009 poll results demonstrate an increasingly engaged Republican primary electorate. In the GOP gubernatorial primary election, the poll finds Gov. Rick Perry leading Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by 12 points (42-30), an adge that is just outside the 5.14 point margin of error of 5.14%. Debra Medina runs a distant third with 7%.
Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
The race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination continues to be marked by a lack of engagement and enthusiasm, with more than half of those planning on voting in the Democratic primary not yet having settled on a choice. Among Democratic primary voters, Kinky Friedman leads the large pack of contenders with 19%, followed by Tom Schieffer with 10%. All of the other Democratic candidates for governor garnered 5% or less of the vote.
Potential Senate Special Election
Because Senator Hutchison has yet to announce her resignation from the U.S. Senate, the potential race to fill her seat has yet to draw voters' attention - or at least their commitment to any of the prospective candidates. As in our June Survey, the number of undecided voters is still large. Houston Mayor Bill White appears to have made some head-way -- he trailed John Sharp and David Dewhurst in June, and now runs neck and neck with Dewhurst at 13% (Sharp garners 10% this time around). All three well are within the margin of error here, and nobody is really making the needle jump. The other candidates all remain in low single figures. White appears to be doing better with weak and leaning Democrats and independents, while Sharp and White are splitting the strong Democrats.
Gubernatorial General Election
In a series of hypothetical match-ups against the prominent Democratic "front runners," Hutchison runs stronger than Perry across the board: nine points stronger against Tom Schieffer, five points stronger against Kinky Friedman, and seven points stronger against Ronnie Earle. Both candidates, however, register double-figure advantages in all of these hypothetical head to heads.
Against an unnamed Democratic nominee, however, Hutchison tops the Democrat by 11 points (36-25), while Perry wins by only 1 point. Many respondents clearly wish to maintain an open-mind, as support for an un-named third party candidate and the percentage saying they are undecided remains very high. Still, the fact that the governor only wins against a generic Democrat by one point may be important, especially in light of his sagging approval numbers.
Generic Congressional and State Legislative Ballot
When asked about other elections, Republicans enjoyed a nine-point advantage in the Congressional match up, but only a six-point lead in state legislative races. That this passes for good news is commentary on the tough sledding for Democrats. Still, it can be seen as a sign of continuing improvement in their legislative election competitiveness, something that has been manifest over the last two cycles.
February 2009 (2010 election)
The February, 2009 survey checked into Texans' thoughts on the 2010 statewide elections, along with their initial preferences in a potential senate election to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison (should she resign her seat).
In a match-up of heavyweights, we find that U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison leads Governor Rick Perry 36% to 30% among respondents who say they plan to vote in the 2010 Republican Primary election. The six-point margin, combined with a the 34% who say they have not yet made up their minds, indicates that Hutchison may not have the overwhelming lead many have assumed. Hutchison's margin is derived largely from her support among women and independent Republicans, while Perry is either even or holds a small lead among men and strong conservatives. If the sample is reduced slightly to registered voters who say they plan to vote in the Republican primary, the margin widens slightly to 37-29, with the undecided percentage remaining the same.
To ascertain preferences in a prospective election to fill Senator Hutchison's seat, we relied on voting probability scales. That is, for each of the leading candidates we offered a short biographical statement and then asked how likely is it that the respondent would vote for this person, using a 0 (no chance of voting for him/her) to 100 (certain to vote for him/her) scale. Among oft-mentioned Republican candidates, Greg Abbott leads the way with an average score of 51, followed by David Dewhurst (49), Michael Williams (48), Elizabeth Ames Jones (45), Florence Shapiro (44), and Roger Williams (44). On the Democratic side, John Sharp received an average score of 47, with Bill White receiving a 45.
These voting probability scores can also be used to compare the preferences of individual voters for specific candidate match-ups. We find that relatively well-known Republican candidates (especially Abbott and Dewhurst) typically hold a 5-10 point lead over well-known Democrats (Sharp and White). Lesser known Republicans (Ames-Jones, Shapiro, and Roger Williams), however, are essentially tied with Sharp and White. As might be expected, many voters rate their probability of voting for specific candidates at the mid-point of 50, creating a high percentage of "undecided" voters in our head-to-head estimates. Party identification is the primary explanation of candidate preference; Republicans prefer Republicans and Democrats prefer Democrats.
October 2008 (2008 election)
Looking more closely at the survey data on the election suggests how different groups of Texans are responding to the candidates in the presidential and US Senate races.
In the presidential race, the national trend of strong black support for Barack Obama is also evident among Texans, with Obama receiving 92% of the support among blacks registrants (compared to 3% for McCain and 5% undecided). Obama is receiving decent -- though not overwhelming -- support among Latinos, edging McCain 51%-39%. Interestingly, 10% of Latinos are undecided, the highest percent among the ethnic/racial sub-groups. Whites supported McCain by a margin of 68%-23.5%, with 6.5% undecided.
When the sample is broken down by gender, McCain enjoys a sizable lead among men: 57% to 34% for Obama, with Libertarian Bob Barr polling 3% and 6% undecided. Women were more evenly divided among McCain and Obama, with McCain registering 46% versus Obama's 44 with 9.5% undecided.
In the US Senate match up, gender and ethnic categories exhibit similar though less lopsided patterns of support. Democrat Rick Noriega had a slight 40%-38% lead among women, with Libertarian Yvonne Schick garnering just under 3% and 20% undecided. Men favored incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn heavily, 53.5% to 31%, with Shcick at 8%.
A hypothetical match up asked respondents, "If the presidential election were between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden, for whom would you vote?" Though the Republican vice-presidential candidate's approval numbers have fluctuated widely nationally, registered voters in the Texas sample chose Palin by a comfortable 49%-42% margin, with 10% undecided. Men preferred Palin to Biden by a 56%-40% margin, while women preferred Palin by a slimmer 46-45 margin, with 9% of women unsure.
5. State Policy Issues (May 2011)
Texas as a Model
May 2011 poll results demonstrate a small though significant drop in the number of respondents who agree with the statement, "generally speaking, the way state government runs in Texas serves as a good model for other states to follow." Fifty-two percent of respondents expressed some level of agreement with the statement, as opposed to 58% in May 2010 and 57% in February 2010. Conversely, 35% of respondents expressed some level of disagreement with the statement, as opposed to 30% in May 2010 and 31% in February 2010. These changes are likely related to an increase in media coverage of the state's budget problems and a decline in media pieces extolling Texas as a "model" state government. That said, the fact that a majority of Texans continue to agree with the notion that Texas government serves as a good model suggests that, by and large, Texans have not lost faith in "the Texas way" even amidst challenging economic and fiscal circumstances.
Sonogram Bill
The May 2011 poll asked respondents about their views on the so-called "sonogram bill," recently signed into law, which requires women to undergo a sonogram and listen to a description of their fetus before having an abortion. It should be noted that the question we asked is not an entirely accurate representation of the bill that was ultimately signed into law by Governor Perry. The bill as described in the survey would have required women to listen to their fetus's heartbeat. The law that emerged from the legislative process requires women to listen to a physician describing the fetus, while making an image and heartbeat sound of the fetus available for women to observe.
Despite the differences between the bill described in the poll and the law that was passed, it is likely that respondents were primarily focused upon the spirit of the bill rather than its specific details when expressing their views of it. Results show that half of the respondents approve of the sonogram bill to some degree, while 39% oppose it. Crosstabulations of the results by race show that whites and Latinos are much more likely to express strong support for the sonogram bill than are African-Americans, who are far more likely to strongly oppose the bill.
Gay Unions
In concert with our previous surveys in which the same question was asked, respondents split almost evenly across the three options most often discussed in the policy debate about state-recognized homosexual unions. 30% of respondents favored legalizing gay marriage, another 31% favored legalizing civil unions for gay couples, and 33% did not favor legalizing marriage or civil unions for homosexuals.
State Revenue for Education
Texas's budget shortfall did not prevent Texans from approving of spending state revenue for higher education. A majority of respondents indicated that the state should increase spending in this area; most of these respondents indicated increased spending should go toward making college more affordable for all Texans.
Local Enforcement of Federal Immigration Laws
Throughout the 2011 legislative session, Governor Perry has promoted legislation to deny state funds to local governments that prohibit law enforcement officials from inquiring about an individual's immigration status (e.g. so-called "sanctuary cities"). With an eye toward this legislation, we asked respondents about their views on whether local law enforcement officials should enforce federal immigration laws. Thirty-nine percent of respondents answered that local law enforcement should be required to enforce immigration laws, while another 38% answered that while enforcing federal laws should not be a primary responsibility of local police, they should not be prohibited from doing so. Only 12% of respondents answered that local governments should be allowed to prohibit police from asking individuals about their immigration status. It thus appears that the sanctuary cities legislation currently making its way through the Texas Legislature would enjoy the support of an large percentage of Texans.
5.1 Governance Policy (Archive)
February 2010
Texas as a model
Respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement, "Generally speaking, the way state government runs in Texas serves as a good model for other states to follow?" Fifty-seven percent agreed with the statement, 31% disagreed, and 12% didn't know.
October 2009
Gubernatorial Removal of Political Appointees
The October 2009 poll results suggest that Texans are somewhat aware of Governor Perry removing certain appointed officials, and that their reactions to this controversy vary by partisanship. Without specifically naming Perry or the controversies at hand, the survey asked respondents if they felt it was appropriate for the governor to remove his own appointees for political reasons. By a 2-to-1 margin (52%-26%), the "no" response was more popular than the "yes" response ("don't know" came in third). When cross-tabulated by party, results show that Democratic identifiers overwhelmingly do not believe it is appropriate for a governor to remove his own appointments for political reasons, while Republican identifiers are more evenly divided but are slightly more likely to choose the "no" response as well.
The specific wording of the item as follows:
"The Texas Constitution grants the Governor the power to appoint individuals to many boards and commissions. Do you believe that that it is appropriate for the Governor to remove these individuals for political reasons?"
June 2009
Voter Identification
So as to determine whether extensive media coverage of the legislative debate over a proposed voter identification requirement had changed public opinion on the issue, we re-asked the exact same question about the proposed requirement that was asked in the February-March poll, before the legislature extensively addressed the issue (please see the sub-section on the February-March poll below to find exact wording).
Results show that the legislative debate on the issue had no bearing on public opinion. As in the February-March poll, a large majority of respondents (70%) supported the requirement, and a small minority (17%) opposed it, with 14% of respondents registering no opinion.
February-March 2009
Voter Identification
In anticipation of debate over a proposed voter identification requirement in the 2009 state legislative session, a revised question on the subject (different from the one in the July 2008 poll) was asked in February-March 2009. The wording of the revised question was as follows:
"Some people argue that requiring registered voters to present government‐issued photo identification at the polls reduces voter fraud and does not place major obstacles on anyone who is legally entitled to vote.
Other people argue that such a requirement has a negligible effect on voter fraud but places significant obstacles on elderly, low‐income, disabled, and minority voters. Do you agree or disagree with the idea that
registered voters should be required to present a government‐issued photo id at the polls before they can be allowed to vote?
1. Agree
2. Disagree
3. Don't know"
Results were quite similar to those of the July 2008 question, though the answer choices were different (see the July 2008 sub-section below for more on the July 2008 question). 69% of respondents agreed that voters should be required to produce a government-issued photo id to vote, 18% disagreed, and 13% answered don't know. It appears that public opinion on this issue is quite stable, with a large majority of Texans favoring a voter identification requirement no matter how the question is asked.
Redistricting
A revised redistricting question (different from the one in the July 2008 poll) was asked in February-March 2009. The wording of the revised question was as follows:
"Every ten years states redraw the boundaries of congressional and legislative districts based on new Census figures in a process called redistricting. Currently the state legislature and governor are primarily
responsible for redistricting. Would you favor or oppose a change in state law that removed redistricting authority from the legislature and governor, giving it instead to an independent, appointed commission?
- Favor
- Oppose
- Don't Know."
Results were very similar to those of the July 2008 question. 40% of respondents answered that they favor the establishment of a commission, 22% were opposed, and 38% answered "don't know.
July 2008
Voter Identification
In the 2007 legislative session, Republican legislators pushed for passage of a law requiring photo identification to vote in Texas. The legislation failed to pass but sparked tremendous controversy and media coverage. Numerous Democratic legislators argued that it would discourage minorities and the elderly from voting. Moreover, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott has made fighting voter fraud a cornerstone of his tenure, thus attracting additional attention to the issue. In light of a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that laws requiring photo identification are constitutional, this issue will likely remain a hot topic in Texas politics.
This survey found strong positive responses to the question, "Do you support or oppose changing current state law to require registered voters to present government-issued photo identification before they are permitted to vote?" Seventy percent of this weighted sample supported a voter ID requirement, with 52% strongly supporting the proposal. Only 19% expressed opposition, 13% strong opposition.
Redistricting
It has now been five years since the partisan redistricting battles of 2003 shook the Texas political system. Our survey asked respondents:
"As you may know, redistricting is the process in which the physical boundaries of voting districts are changed based on current Census figures. Would you favor or oppose a redistricting reform that requires an independent commission of citizens to set boundaries for voting districts, instead of the state legislature and governor drawing and enacting a new redistricting plan?"
Given these choices, 45.5% of our sample favored an independent redistricting commission. and 19.5% opposed. Thirty-five percent, however, replied that they didn't know, suggesting a lack of familiarity with or attention to the issue.
5.2 Public Education (Archive)
June 2009
Higher Education
Several questions concerning the financing of higher education that were originally asked either in the February 2009 or July 2008 surveys were re-asked in the June 2009 survey, so as to compare views on education policy before and after the 2009 state legislative session. As it turned out, Texans' views on higher education funding after the legislative session differed little from their views on the issue before the session. A slightly higher percentage of respondents (53% instead of 48%) favored reinstating legislative control over university tuition rates, and a slightly lower percentage (23% instead of 26% in February) opposed such a move. Additionally, a slightly smaller plurality of respondents (42% as opposed to 48% in February) expressed support for using state revenue to make college education affordable for all Texans. As in the February poll, much lower percentages of respondents expressed support for either using revenue to make college education more affordable "for only the most needy Texans" or maintaining current revenue allocation levels, and only a very small percentage of respondents expressed support for decreasing the amount of revenue allocated for the purposes of lowering the college education costs. (See the February 2009 sub-section below for more on these questions).
February-March 2009
Primary and Secondary Education
Three questions related to primary and secondary education policy were asked in the March poll. One such question concerned Texans' views about the teaching of creationism/intelligent design in public schools. The results for this question are somewhat surprising -- 59% of Texans believe either that creationism/intelligent design should replace evolution as the primary biological theory taught to students in schools, or that creationism/intelligent design should be taught alongside evolution as a competing theory.
Another item asked respondents to name their most preferred educational policy proposal from a list of six possible proposals that have been mentioned by legislators. Results for this question suggest that Texans do not overwhelmingly support one or two such policy proposals above all others. Twenty-seven percent of respondents named increasing teacher salaries as their most preferred proposal, making it the number one choice). Finally, respondents were asked which unit of government (federal, state, or local) should bear responsibility for setting academic standards - the top choice was state government (41%), followed by local government (31%), with only a small minority (16%) naming the federal government as their preferred venue for the setting of such standards.
Higher Education
Responses to questions about funding of higher education show Texans broadly in favor of more funding, though with widely distributed views of how to increase that funding. Forty eight percent favored reinstating legislative control over university tuition rates, with 26% opposed and 27% responding "don't know".
But in the face of recent legislative reluctance to increase funding for higher education, we found significant support for increased state spending to make college more affordable. When asked about the the amount of state revenue that should be used to make education at state colleges and universities more affordable for Texans, the most frequent response (48%) was, "it should be increased to make college education more affordable for at Texas." An additional 15% responded funding should be increased to improve affordability for "only the most need Texans." As the figure linked on the right side of the page illustrates, much smaller numbers registered support for keeping funding the same (14%) or decreasing it (6%). The margins for support of each category was similar to responses in our July 2008 survey.
The legislature is also considering modifications to the top ten percent admissions rule for state colleges and universities. The survey asked:
"Under current Texas law, students graduating in the top 10% of their high school class are guaranteed admittance to the Texas public university of their choice. Opponents of this "top 10% rule" argue that too many students qualify for automatic admission, giving universities almost no discretion over their own admissions and leaving very few openings for other students to gain admission to Texas public universities. Supporters of the "top 10% rule" argue that it has helped to increase the number of minorities and students from low-income households admitted to Texas public universities. If the Texas legislature were to reconsider the "top 10% rule," what is your opinion on what the legislature should do?"
Thirty three percent chose "leave the "top 10% rule" as it currently is," with 17% opting for "raise the bar to the top 5% of a high school graduating class." Much smaller numbers chose "cap the number of students eligible for college admission under the "top 10% rule" (8%), with 22% choosing to eliminate the "top 10% rule" altogether and 20% saying they didn't know.
July 2008
Primary and Secondary Education
In the inaugural UT Texas Poll, respondents were asked about the overall quality of K-12 public education in Texas. Results suggested that Texans have a generally lukewarm view of public education in the state. Only 5% of respondents called its quality "excellent", though 42% said it was "good". 38% percent responded "not very good", with 11% judging quality terrible.
Higher Education
The inaugural UT Texas Poll attempted to gauge Texans' views on higher education funding in light recent tuition increases following tuition deregulation and the steady decline in legislative appropriations for public universities in Texas. In order to gather data on higher education funding, respondents were asked: "What is your opinion concerning the amount of state revenue that should be used to make education at state colleges and universities more affordable for Texans?" (Note: this question reappears in the February 2009 and June 2009 polls). The largest percentage of respondents by far (57%) chose a response calling for increased funding "to make college education more affordable for all Texans." 14% supported increases targeting "only the most needy Texans," while 15% thought state funding should stay the same and 7% thought state funding should be decreased.
5.2 Public Education (Archive)
September 2010
State Board of Education Curriculum Changes
During the spring of 2010, the Texas State Board of Education catapulted itself from state-level obscurity to national notoriety when its conservative members pushed through a series of dramatic changes to the state's educational curriculum. In the May 2010 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, respondents were asked what they thought about some of the more controversial proposed changes.
For most of the proposed changes that were polled, a far greater percentage of respondents expressed support than opposition. Respondents were most enthusiastic about the proposal to require social science teachers to emphasize America's "free-enterprise system" as a source of the country's success, with 73% either strongly or somewhat approving and only 11% strongly or somewhat disapproving.
Respondents were also generally positive toward three other proposals. A proposal to offer an elective course on the Bible for high school students received some level of approval from 65% of respondents and some level of disapproval from only 18% of respondents. A proposal to require U.S. history teachers to discuss the Christian religious beliefs of the American Founding Fathers received some level of approval from 60% of respondents and some level of disapproval from 23% of respondents. Respondents were a bit more divided on a proposal to require science teachers to present evidence both in support of and against the theory of evolution. A slight majority (52%) either strongly or somewhat approved of this proposal, while a small but still substantial minority (28%) either strongly or somewhat disapproved of this proposal.
Of the five proposed changes that were polled, respondents were closely divided on only one. Proposals to reduce the amount of time teachers are required to spend discussing the contributions of ethnic and racial minorities to Texas history garnered the approval of 35% of those surveyed and the disapproval of 42%.
June 2009
Higher Education
Several questions concerning the financing of higher education that were originally asked either in the February 2009 or July 2008 surveys were re-asked in the June 2009 survey, so as to compare views on education policy before and after the 2009 state legislative session. As it turned out, Texans' views on higher education funding after the legislative session differed little from their views on the issue before the session. A slightly higher percentage of respondents (53% instead of 48%) favored reinstating legislative control over university tuition rates, and a slightly lower percentage (23% instead of 26% in February) opposed such a move. Additionally, a slightly smaller plurality of respondents (42% as opposed to 48% in February) expressed support for using state revenue to make college education affordable for all Texans. As in the February poll, much lower percentages of respondents expressed support for either using revenue to make college education more affordable "for only the most needy Texans" or maintaining current revenue allocation levels, and only a very small percentage of respondents expressed support for decreasing the amount of revenue allocated for the purposes of lowering the college education costs. (See the February 2009 sub-section below for more on these questions).
February-March 2009
Primary and Secondary Education
Three questions related to primary and secondary education policy were asked in the March poll. One such question concerned Texans' views about the teaching of creationism/intelligent design in public schools. The results for this question are somewhat surprising -- 59% of Texans believe either that creationism/intelligent design should replace evolution as the primary biological theory taught to students in schools, or that creationism/intelligent design should be taught alongside evolution as a competing theory.
Another item asked respondents to name their most preferred educational policy proposal from a list of six possible proposals that have been mentioned by legislators. Results for this question suggest that Texans do not overwhelmingly support one or two such policy proposals above all others. Twenty-seven percent of respondents named increasing teacher salaries as their most preferred proposal, making it the number one choice). Finally, respondents were asked which unit of government (federal, state, or local) should bear responsibility for setting academic standards - the top choice was state government (41%), followed by local government (31%), with only a small minority (16%) naming the federal government as their preferred venue for the setting of such standards.
Higher Education
Responses to questions about funding of higher education show Texans broadly in favor of more funding, though with widely distributed views of how to increase that funding. Forty eight percent favored reinstating legislative control over university tuition rates, with 26% opposed and 27% responding "don't know".
But in the face of recent legislative reluctance to increase funding for higher education, we found significant support for increased state spending to make college more affordable. When asked about the the amount of state revenue that should be used to make education at state colleges and universities more affordable for Texans, the most frequent response (48%) was, "it should be increased to make college education more affordable for at Texas." An additional 15% responded funding should be increased to improve affordability for "only the most need Texans." As the figure linked on the right side of the page illustrates, much smaller numbers registered support for keeping funding the same (14%) or decreasing it (6%). The margins for support of each category was similar to responses in our July 2008 survey.
The legislature is also considering modifications to the top ten percent admissions rule for state colleges and universities. The survey asked:
"Under current Texas law, students graduating in the top 10% of their high school class are guaranteed admittance to the Texas public university of their choice. Opponents of this "top 10% rule" argue that too many students qualify for automatic admission, giving universities almost no discretion over their own admissions and leaving very few openings for other students to gain admission to Texas public universities. Supporters of the "top 10% rule" argue that it has helped to increase the number of minorities and students from low-income households admitted to Texas public universities. If the Texas legislature were to reconsider the "top 10% rule," what is your opinion on what the legislature should do?"
Thirty three percent chose "leave the "top 10% rule" as it currently is," with 17% opting for "raise the bar to the top 5% of a high school graduating class." Much smaller numbers chose "cap the number of students eligible for college admission under the "top 10% rule" (8%), with 22% choosing to eliminate the "top 10% rule" altogether and 20% saying they didn't know.
July 2008
Primary and Secondary Education
In the inaugural UT Texas Poll, respondents were asked about the overall quality of K-12 public education in Texas. Results suggested that Texans have a generally lukewarm view of public education in the state. Only 5% of respondents called its quality "excellent", though 42% said it was "good". 38% percent responded "not very good", with 11% judging quality terrible.
Higher Education
The inaugural UT Texas Poll attempted to gauge Texans' views on higher education funding in light recent tuition increases following tuition deregulation and the steady decline in legislative appropriations for public universities in Texas. In order to gather data on higher education funding, respondents were asked: "What is your opinion concerning the amount of state revenue that should be used to make education at state colleges and universities more affordable for Texans?" (Note: this question reappears in the February 2009 and June 2009 polls). The largest percentage of respondents by far (57%) chose a response calling for increased funding "to make college education more affordable for all Texans." 14% supported increases targeting "only the most needy Texans," while 15% thought state funding should stay the same and 7% thought state funding should be decreased.
5.3 State Immigration Policy (Archive)
February 2011
Immigration Policy
The February 2011 survey found registered voters in Texas largely supportive of various proposals to limit illegal immigration and to step up law enforcement measures aimed at illegal immigrants. However, as the "race and ethnicity" tabs on the features on the right side of the page illustrate, on most proposals, Latino and white respondents differ sharply, with Latinos tending to be much less supportive of such measures.
September 2010
Immigration reform
We also asked the Texans sampled about several immigration measures. Most of these items spoke to state-level measures and are discussed in the state policy section. However, we did survey Texans on one of the central policy ideas circulating at the national level. We asked about their support for "Passing a comprehensive immigration overhaul at the federal level that would provide a pathway to citizenship for most illegal immigrants currently living in the United States," Texans were sharply divided, with little middle ground. Forty-four percent supported such a measure, while 49% opposed it. When examined along party lines, 72% of Democrats supported such a measure, while 70% of Republicans opposed it -- 54% strongly, as opposed to 39% of Democrats who supported such a measure. This suggests that opposition to such a measure is more intense than support for it.
May 2010
Immigration Policy
Always a political hot potato in Texas, immigration leapt to the forefront of Texans' minds in the spring of 2010 as a result of the national controversy over SB-1070, the Arizona Law that requires police officers to question individuals suspected of being in the country illegally. Respondents to the May 2010 UT poll were asked a battery of questions on immigration policy. Results to these questions demonstrate that Texans tend to be broadly supportive of state-level policy proposals meant to curtail the flow of immigrants to the United States, though there are some proposals on which Texans are closely divided.
Of the state-level policy proposals that were surveyed, respondents registered the strongest and broadest support for a proposal to require businesses to verify the immigration status of workers (88% registered some level of support, and 73% supported strongly) and for a proposal to end in-state tuition for illegal immigrants (67% strongly support, and 10% somewhat support). These two proposal enjoyed support from pluralities of all major racial/ethnic groups, as well as pluralities of both Republican and Democratic identifiers.
Three additional proposals were supported by a majority of respondents, though at somewhat lower levels. A proposal to add an English-only amendment to the Texas Constitution earned some level of support from 68% of respondents, a proposal to end bilingual education in Texas earned some level of support from 58% of respondents, and a proposal to prohibit recruitment of day laborers earned some level of support from 61% of respondents. For each of these policy proposals, party identification and race/ethnicity were strongly correlated with levels of support.
Additionally, a large majority (66%) of respondents expressed some level of support for a proposal to mimic Arizona and pass a law requiring police officers to check the legal status of suspected illegal immigrants. Support was especially strong and widespread among Republicans (79% strongly support, 10% somewhat support) and considerably strong among independents as well (61% strongly support, 8% somewhat support). It was much weaker among Democrats (26% strongly support, 10% somewhat support). Support was also very strong among white respondents ( 69% strongly support, 9% somewhat support), but was considerably lower among African-Americans (33% strongly supported, 14% somewhat supported) and even lower among Hispanics (27% strongly supported, 8% somewhat supported).
June 2009
Respondents were asked two slightly altered versions of immigration-related questions appearing in the February-March 2009 poll. One slightly altered question concerned in-state tuition for undocumented/illegal immigrants , while the other concerned bilingual education(see February 2009 sub-section for more information). The June 2009 version of the first question asked whether respondents would support in-state tuition rates for "undocumented or illegal immigrants who live in Texas and attend Texas public colleges and universities", whereas the February 2009 version did not explicitly refer to students already living in Texas and attending Texas universities. The differences in the results to the two question were significant but not overwhelming - whereas 59% of respondents took a strongly anti-illegal immigration stance in the February-March poll, 47% of respondents took a strongly anti-illegal immigration stance in the June poll (10% and 13% of respondents took a moderately anti-illegal immigration stance in the February-March and June polls, respectively).
The June 2009 version of the second question asked whether respondents "support or oppose continuing bilingual education in Texas public schools," whereas the February-March 2009 version asked whether respondents support "ending bilingual education in Texas public schools." Results for the two polls were only slightly different. 34% of respondents for June poll took the strongly anti-bilingual education position, and 16% took the moderately anti-bilingual education position (as opposed to 34% and 14% in the February poll, respectively). Only 22% of respondents in the June poll took the strongly pro-bilingual education position, as opposed to 30% in the February poll (21% of respondent in the June poll and 16% of respondents in the February poll took the moderately pro-bilingual education position).
Respondents in the June 2009 poll were also asked if they supported "deputizing local police officers and sheriff's deputies to enforce federal immigration laws?" 51% of respondents expressed some level of support for this possibility, while 27% expressed some level of opposition (13% answered "don't know").
Feb. - March 2009
Four questions related to immigration policy were asked in the February-March 2009 poll. Results for these questions suggest that there is strong support for going after those who arguably facilitate illegal immigration. Sixty three percent strongly support requiring businesses to verify the immigration status of every worker and fine businesses if they are caught intentionally employing undocumented or illegal immigrants (overall, 78% support this measure).
There is also support for ending practices that are seen as "accommodating" immigrants (illegal or otherwise). For example, 59% strongly support ending in-state tuition at Texas public colleges and universities for undocumented or illegal immigrants (overall, 69% support this measure). Similarly, 59% support passing an "English-only' amendment to the Texas Constitution and 48% support ending bilingual education in Texas public schools. As in previous surveys, when asked an open-ended question about the most important issues facing Texas, issues related to immigration and border security was the second most prominent category of responses (25%), this time trailing only the economy.
July 2008
Results from the July 2008 poll indicate that Texans' overall attitudes on immigration are perhaps more nuanced than we have been heretofore lead to believe. Asked about what should happen to illegal immigrants who have been working in the U.S. for two years, 49% say they should have a chance to stay and gain resident status. Conversely, 43% say they should be deported to their country of origin. As might be expected, these results vary sharply by ethnicity. Among Anglos, the majority favor deportation (52%-35%), but among Hispanics there is overwhelming support for giving illegal immigrants a chance to stay (70%-23%).
5.4 Social Issues (Archive)
February 2010
Death Penalty
A basic item on the death penalty found the expected strong support for capital punishment in Texas. Seventy-eight percent of Texans supported the death penalty, with only 18% opposed. Support crossed party and gender lines, as this graph illustrates.
High profile questions in the media about the integrity of the justice system seems not to have affected these results nor cultivated widespread doubts about the fairness of the administration of the death penalty. When asked, "Generally speaking, do you believe the death penalty is applied fairly or unfairly in Texas today?", 59% of the sample responded "fairly," with only 27% answering "unfairly" and 14% "don't know." Republicans were more likely than Democrats to consider the application of fair (83% versus 7%). African Americans were more likely than other major ethnic groups to judge it unfair, by a wide margin of 59% unfair to 22% fair with 20% not knowing. By similar margins, white and Hispanic Texans judged the application fair (66% and 62% respectively).
Gay Marriage
Results for the June 2009 UT Poll as well as the Texas Lyceum poll released at about the same times showed what many viewed as surprising level of support for civil unions and/or gay marriage in Texas. The February 2010 survey again found comparable levels of support: 28 percent supported legalizing gay marriage, 35% opted to allow civil unions but not marriage, and 30% wanted to allow neither.
Considered by party identification, a large majority of Democrats sampled favored either allowing marriage (46%) or at least civil unions (25%). The largest single response among Republicans was to be supportive of civil unions but not marriage (46%), with only 11% approving of gay marriage and 37% supporting neither.
June 2009
Gay Marriage
Given Texas's reputation as a socially conservative state, a somewhat surprising finding of this poll concerns the issue of same-sex unions. Twenty-nine percent of respondents support gay marriage, while an additional 32% support civil unions for gay couples. Only 32% of respondents support neither gay marriage nor civil unions. Democrats in our sample are more likely to support gay marriage than civil unions or neither of the two options, independents are more likely to support civil unions, and Republicans are more likely to support neither option.
5.5 Misc. State Issues (Archive)
May 2010
Redistricting
When the Texas Legislature reconvenes in January 2011, redistricting will almost assuredly be near the top of its agenda. Given Texas' spectacular growth over the past ten years, the state's congressional and legislative districts maps will need to be altered substantially. Moreover, memories of the acrimonious redistricting battles of 2003 are still around. Both political parties and numerous communities all over the state will be paying close attention to this high-stakes issue.
In the May 2010 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, respondents were asked a series of questions about redistricting. First, they were asked whether they favor or oppose handing the mapmaking process over to a non-partisan redistricting commission. Respondents were fairly divided on this issue, with 42% in support, 28% in opposition, and 30% answering "don't know." Party identification explains much of the variation in answers to this question. 52% of Democrats favor an independent redistricting commission, while only 15% of Republicans do. Given that Republicans are likely to still be in control of state government after the 2010 elections, these results make a lot of sense.
Respondents were also polled on their views of the importance of various factors that guide the redistricting process. The majority of respondents affirmed the importance of two of these factors (keeping communities within the same legislative districts and ensuring that legislative districts are politically competitive). Respondents were considerably more divided on the importance of maximizing the number of districts in which racial and ethnic minorities constitute the majority of the population. 30% of respondents indicated that they view this factor as important, while 44% of respondents indicated that they view as unimportant.
Legality of Marijuana
With the prominence of the production, sale, and possession of marijuana as an issue in states that have experimented with such policies (especially California), the May 2010 UT/Texas Tribune poll included an item on marijuana legalization. Respondents were offered a set of policy options ranging from prohibiting possession for any reason to complete legalization for any purposes. Twenty-seven opted for no legal use of marijuana at all; twenty-seven percent supported legalizing marijuana for medical use only; twenty-eight percent favored legalization of possession of small amounts of marijuana for any purpose. and fourteen percent favored legalization of any amount for any reason. Only two percent chose "don't know."
February 2010
Gambling
As in previous UT-Austin surveys, a majority of Texans favor some form of expansion of gambling within the state. As in the June 2009 survey, 40% of respondents in the February 2010 survey indicated that they favor full casino gambling in Texas, while another 6% favor expanding gambling to Indian reservations and 13% favor allowing limited expansion of gambling within existing locations. Twenty-one percent of surveyed Texans favor maintaining current gambling laws, while only 10% favor banning all gambling and gaming in Texas. Cross-tabulations by party demonstrate that Texas Democrats are considerably more favorable toward expanding gambling opportunities within the state than Republicans, while self-identified independents are considerably more internally diverse in their views on gambling than are partisans -- though a large percentage of independents also favor full casino gambling.
October 2009
Children's Health Insurance
Registered voters are largely supportive of expanding the Texas Children's Health Insurance Program, with the caveat that families enrolling in the program should be required to pay a share of its costs. Thirty-seven percent of Texans strongly support expansion of the program, and an additional 41% somewhat support it.
Energy Policy
In the realm of energy policy, 68% of respondents expressed some level of support for a hypothetical state government mandate requiring that new homes, commercial buildings, and industrial plants be more energy efficient. This is somewhat surprising in that a plurality of respondents polled also expressed opposition to the cap-and-trade energy bill being debated at the federal level.
June 2009
Gambling
Results from the June 2009 poll lend support to a somewhat surprising finding from the February-March poll (see below) , which suggested that a majority of Texans favor some form of expansion of gambling within the state. 40% of respondents in the June survey indicated that they favor full casino gambling in Texas, while another 7% favor expanding gambling to Indian reservations and 12% favor allowing limited expansion of gambling within existing locations. Eighteen percent of surveyed Texans favor maintaining current gambling laws, while only 10% favor banning all gambling and gaming in Texas. Cross-tabulations by party demonstrate that Texas Democrats are considerably more favorable toward expanding gambling opportunities within the state than Republicans, while self-identified independents are considerably more internally diverse in their views on gambling than are partisans.
Statewide Smokefree Ordinance
Poll results show that a proposed ban on smoking in public spaces including most restaurants in Texas enjoys significant public support. Sixty-three percent of survey respondents indicated that they favor such a ban, while only 31% indicated that they are opposed to it. Cross-tabulations by party show that the proposed smoking ban is supported by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike
Federal Stimulus Money
In early 2009, a controversy developed among political leaders in the state over whether Texas should accept funds allocated to the state from the federal government's stimulus package. We polled on this matter, and found that Texans are quite divided over the issue. Forty-two percent of respondents answered that the state should reject the funds, 36% answered that the state should accept them, and 21% answered "don't know." Cross-tabulations by party reveal that partisans are especially divided on this issue. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans believe that the state should reject the funds, while 64% of Democrats believe that the state should accept them.
Feb.-March 2009
Gambling
Given the conventional wisdom about Texas as a conservative red state, one might expect significant opposition to gambling or the expansion of gambling within the Lone Star state. Instead, we find that 40% of Texans favor allowing full casino gambling in Texas, compared with 6% who prefer expanding gambling but only on Indian reservations, 13% who prefer limiting gambling expansion to existing locations, 17% who prefer leaving gambling laws unchanged, and 12% who prefer banning all gambling in Texas.
October 2008
Media Use
Texans were asked to assess news media coverage of the campaign and of candidates. In general, they saw coverage of John McCain and Sarah Palin as much more unfair than coverage of Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Respondents were asked the following question about each of the four principal candidates:
"On a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 is extremely unfair, 10 is extremely fair, and 5 is exactly in the middle, how fair or unfair have the news media been to [candidate] during this campaign?"
When asked to rate news media coverage of John McCain, 45% of Texans rated it unfair (0-4), 32.5% judged it to be fair (6-10), and 23% judged it in the middle (5). The average rating of McCain's coverage was 4.4; well below the mid-point of 5. Registrants saw news media coverage of Palin as even more negative: 51% rated it unfair, 28% fair, and 21% in the middle. The average rating of Palin's coverage was 3.8.
When asked about the news media and the Democratic ticket, respondents were more likely to rate coverage as "fair" than they were for either McCain or Palin. When asked about Obama, 67% of Texans judged coverage to be in the "fair" range, compared to only 12% calling it "unfair" and 21% rating it in the middle. The average rating of Obama's coverage was 7.3; approximately 3 points higher than the mean rating of news media coverage of McCain. Coverage of Joe Biden was rated as fair by 59%, unfair by 8%, and in the middle by 33%. The average rating of Biden's coverage was 6.9.
This perception of relatively favorable news media treatment does not extend to all Democratic candidates. When asked about news media coverage of Hillary Clinton, 39% rated it as fair, 30% as unfair, and 31% as in the middle. The average rating of news media coverage of Clinton was 5.3.
Breaking the responses down by party, Republicans and, to a lesser extent, independents, were more likely to find the coverage of McCain and Palin unfair than were Democrats. Democrats, however, did not register the same degree of criticism of coverage of the Obama-Biden ticket.
To ascertain where Texans get their political news, we asked what percent of their information comes from, respectively, broadcast television, local television, cable television, newspaper, radio, the Internet, and magazines. Perhaps surprisingly, cable TV comes in first, with an average of 36%, followed by broadcast TV (20%), the Internet (19%), local TV (15%), radio (13%), newspapers (7%), and magazines (4%). Although the summation of these estimated percentages suggests people have trouble with the notion of 100% representing the whole, the data clearly indicate a shift in the locus of political information -- away from local TV news and newspapers and towards talk radio and the Internet.
6. Representation and Redistricting
With an eye toward gauging public opinion about matters related to redistricting -- an issue near the top of the state legislature's agenda in 2011 and now the subject of the inevitable post-redistricting litigation -- we asked several questions about this topic in the May, 2011 of the UT-Texas Tribune poll.
First, we asked a recurring question concerning support for handing over the drawing of legislative district lines to a non-partisan redistricting commission. As was the case in previous polls in which we asked this question, a plurality of respondents expressed support for the creation of such a commission. A healthy minority expressed opposition and an equally large minority expressed no opinion on this issue. As might be expected, results broke largely along party lines, with self-described Republicans (whose party benefits from a partisan redistricting process, since it controls state government) expressing opposition to such a measure, and self-described Democrats and independents more likely to support it.
Given that conflicts over redistricting are often closely linked to racial issues (with advocates for ethnic/racial minority groups fighting for a higher number of majority-minority districts), we asked respondents several questions about the importance of race in the context of political representation. To begin with, we asked respondents the importance they ascribe to being represented by someone of their own race. As this feature graphic illustrates,, an overwhelming percentage of respondents (83%) answered that it is of little importance. A crosstabulation of results by the race of respondents reveals little difference across racial groups, with 87% of whites, 73% of African Americans, and 81% of Latinos saying that the race of their representative is of no importance to them.
Similarly, but more surprisingly, respondents of different racial groups did not vary dramatically with respect to their answer to the question: "How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statement: my member of Congress represents people like me." While the percentage of whites who agree to some extent with this statement is somewhat higher than for the other two major racial groups, the difference is not enormous. A far greater source of difference in response to this question is political ideology. A majority of conservatives (56%) agree with this statement at least somewhat, while a strong majority of liberals (64%) disagree with it.
Finally, we asked respondents how important it is to them that more individuals from their race or ethnic group are elected to the state legislature or Congress . Not surprisingly, the vast majority of whites in the sample indicated that electing more individuals of their racial group is of no importance to them. A majority of blacks and Hispanic indicated that they do place at least some importance on electing a greater number of individuals from their own racial/ethnic group, with African Americans placing greater importance on this matter than Latinos.
7. National Policy Issues (May 2011)
National Immigration Policy
In the May 2011 installment of the UT Poll, we asked respondents about various proposals to give some illegal immigrants currently living in the United States a pathway to citizenship. First, we asked a general question about support for "a pathway to citizenship for most illegal immigrants currently living in the United States." In concert with previous poll results, the majority of respondents opposed such a policy change, most of them strongly so. Republicans were most vociferously opposed to such a change, with 66% expressing strong disagreement with it. Conversely, a healthy majority of Democrats (62%) expressed some level of agreement with the proposal, while a bare majority of independents expressed disagreement with it. Results also show that a majority of Latinos support such a pathway to citizenship for most illegal immigrants, while most whites and (interestingly) African-Americans oppose it.
We also asked respondents two related but more specific questions about the granting of legal status to illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children. First, we inquired about support for a proposal to grant such status to such individuals who join the military. On this proposal, 59% of respondents expressed some level of approval, including 72% of Democrats, 52% of Republicans, and 54% of independents. 60% of whites, 51% of African Americans, and 65% of Hispanics also expressed some level of support for this proposal.
However, when asked about support for a similar proposal for individuals who attain a college education rather than serve in the military, the results were reversed. 57% of respondents expressed some level of disapproval with this proposal, including 77% of Republicans, 55% of independents, 65% of whites, and 52% of African Americans. A majority of Democrats and Hispanics, on the other hand, expressed support for it.
7.1 Health Care (Archive)
May 2010: Health Care Reform
The UT/Texas Tribune May 2010 survey found a majority of Texas opposed to the recently passed national health care reform legislation. Sixty percent said they disapproved of the legislation, 28% approved, and 11% didn't know. The level of support was highly polarized by party: only 2% of Republicans approved, compared to 64% of Democrats. Ninety-four percent of Republicans disapproved, as did 71% of independents. Only 15% of Democrats disapproved, though 21% of Democrats were undecided.
Texas Attorney General Greg Abbot has joined several other attorney general of other states to sue to prevent implementation of some aspects of the health reform legislation. Fifty-seven percent of respondents supported that action, while 29% opposed it. The party breakdown of support and opposition closely followed support and opposition to the overall measure, as this chart illustrates.
October 2009
Polling results for October 2009 suggest that a majority of Texans hold unfavorable views of the way both parties in Washington are handling the issue of health care. Forty-nine percent of surveyed respondents strongly disapprove of the actions of President Obama and congressional Democrats on the issue of health care, while an additional 9% somewhat disapprove of their actions. Congressional Republicans do not fare much better -- 33% of respondents strongly disapprove of their actions on health care, and an additional 21% somewhat disapprove of them. When assessing the most important issues facing the US and Texas , 16% found it among the most important issues facing the US, and only 9% chose it as the most important problem facing Texas.
When the results concerning this issue are examined more closely, it becomes apparent that while partisan identifiers are generally (though often not strongly) supportive of the way their respective parties in Washington have handled the health care debate, independents who express no preference for either party overwhelmingly express negative views of the health care actions of both congressional Democrats and Republicans. Because independents join Republican identifiers in disapproving of congressional Democrats and join Democratic identifiers in disapproving of congressional Republicans, neither party garners the approval of a majority of respondents in the way it has been addressing health care reform.
Policy Views
Texans of different political persuasions are in surprising agreement over many (though not all) of the policy aspects of health care reform currently being vigorously debated in Washington, DC. Most impressively, results show that an overwhelming percentage of respondents (88%) believe that it is at least somewhat important that the final health care bills lets individuals retain control over their own health care choices. Respondents are also in substantial agreement concerning the importance of ending denials of coverage for pre-existing conditions (80%), ensuring that the health care bill does not add to the national debt (80%), protecting the Medicare program from cuts (79%), and ending frivolous malpractice lawsuits (78%). Support for these measures crosses party lines -- large majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents in the sample consider it important that the aforementioned items result from the final health care bill.
Significant disagreement within the electorate about the health care bill appears to be restricted to two major points of contention - whether the bill should ensure that all Americans have health care coverage, and whether the bill should include a government-run public option. On the former matter, however, a clear majority exists. 57% of respondents believe it is at least somewhat important the final bill ensures that every American has health coverage, as opposed to 29% who believe it is more unimportant and 11% who are in the middle on the issue. Partisan differences are quite stark on this issue. 86% of Democrats and 56% of independents believe that ensuring universal coverage is at least somewhat important, but only 32% of Republicans do.
The only issue in the health care debate about which the electorate appears to be truly split down the middle concerns whether the final bill should include a government-run public option. 41% of respondents believe that inclusion of a public option is at least somewhat important, 43% of respondents believe it is more unimportant, and 10% are in-between on the issue. Partisan differences in views on the public option are especially pronounced. 69% of Democrats believe it is at least somewhat important that the final bill include a public option, but only 15% of Republicans are in agreement. Predictably, independents fall in the middle, with 43% expressing that a public option is an important component of the final bill.
7.2 Previous Poll Results
October 2009
Afghanistan policy
October 2009 results suggested that the controversy over the future of American military presence in Afghanistan has polarized Democratic and Republican partisans at the mass level. Texans are deeply divided over their primary concern about Afghanistan policy -- 52% say they are more concerned that American troops will stay in Afghanistan "too long" than that they will leave "too soon," while 49% express the opposite sentiments. Among partisan groups, however, public opinion is far more homogeneous -- 80% of Democrats are more concerned that U.S. troops will "stay too long," while 76% of Republicans are more concerned that U.S. troops will "leave too soon." Independents are more closely divided, with 58% more concerned that troops will "stay too long" and 42% more concerned that troops will "leave too soon."
But while party identifiers in Texas are substantially divided over future developments in Afghanistan, they do not appear to hold very divergent assessments of American military actions in Afghanistan thus far. Indeed, Texans as a whole seem to have somewhat unfavorable views of the effects of American military involvement in Afghanistan to this point, irrespective of their party affiliations. Twenty-eight percent of respondents believe American military actions in Afghanistan have increased the threat of terrorism against the United States, while an additional 44% believe that the threat of terrorism against the United States has not changed much as a result of the American troop presence there.
Cap-And-Trade/Energy Policy
More Texans oppose the establishment of a cap-and-trade system to limit greenhouse gas emissions than support it, with 46% of respondents expressing some amount of opposition and 37% of respondents expressing some amount of support. As might be expected, views on cap-and-trade tend to break down along party lines, though not to the same extent as on health care or Afghanistan. Whereas 58% of Democrats express some amount of support for cap-and-trade and 16% express some amount of opposition, 67% of Republicans express some amount of opposition and 20% express some amount of support . Naturally, independents are more divided, with 50% expressing some amount of opposition and 33% expressing some amount of support.
July 2008
Issue Priorities and Positions
We also asked our Texas respondents a more limited set of of public policy questions about issues and problems facing the nation. As discussed in section 1.1, respondents registered concern about the state of the economy. Forty-two percent identified the economy as the nation's most important issue, more than double the 18% registered for the next most highly rated issue (gas/oil prices). The next three most important issues were the war in Iraq (8%), immigration (7%), and terrorism/national security (6%).
Iraq War
Texans are split over the proper course of action in Iraq. Twenty seven percent favor an immediate and complete withdrawal of U.S. military forces, while 38% prefer a gradual withdrawal, with troops being kept in Iraq until the situation becomes more stable. Still, this split should not obscure the fact that relatively few people favor a more aggressive posture: only 29% favor either increasing U.S. forces in Iraq or some version of the current status quo.
Lone Star residents are also skeptical about the long-term prospects for democracy in Iraq. Fifty three percent say democracy is "unlikely" in Iraq, compared to 39% saying it is "likely."
Immigration
Texans' attitudes on immigration are perhaps more nuanced than we have been heretofore lead to believe. Asked about what should happen to illegal immigrants who have been working in the U.S. for two years, 49% say they should have a chance to stay and gain resident status. Conversely, 43% say they should be deported to their country of origin. As might be expected, these results vary sharply by ethnicity. Among Anglos, the majority favor deportation (52%-35%), but among Hispanics there is overwhelming support for giving illegal immigrants a chance to stay (70%-23%).
8. Methodology and Date File Archive
The sub-sections that follow contain code books, data files, cross tabs, and summaries for all of the polls organized chronologically.
The link on the right side of this page will load an excerpt of an interview with Daron Shaw, the polling director for the Texas Politics project and the UT-Austin/Texas Tribune poll, conducted by Jason Embry of the Austin American-Statesman. For a link to the entire podcast, which also discusses poll results and the 2010 election in Texas, see Embry's "First Reading" blog. (The Statesman compiles blog entries at that URL. If you search the page and can't find the entire podcast, you may need search the site for an archived version.)
8.1 July 2008
The July, 2008 UT-Austin Texas Politics Poll was designed by researchers at UT-Austin and conducted by YouGovPolimetrix, a firm with demonstrated success in internet polling. YouGovPolimetrix accomplishes internet polling through a unique sampling procedure known as "matched random sampling." The firm begins with two lists: (1) a list of all consumers in Texas (covering approximately 95 percent of the adult population), and (2) a list of people who have agreed to take YouGovPolimetrix's surveys. For each list, Polimetrix has an extensive set of demographics.
The sampling procedure then progresses in two stages. First, a random sample of consumers is drawn. For each person drawn from this sample a list of key demographics is recorded. In essence, each individual drawn is represented as a cluster of demographic characteristics, including age, income, education, race, gender, longitude and latitude, etc. Second, YouGovPolimetrix uses a matching algorithm to find the PollingPoint panelist who is the closest match to the person drawn off the consumer file. In this way an entire matched random sample is constructed for all people in the sample.
The current poll of 800 adult Texans has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The poll includes interviews with 677 registered voters, with an attendant margin of error of +/- 3.77 percentage points. Response rates are almost 100% given the matching methodology. The YouGovPolimetrix pool includes people who are much less likely to have access to the Internet or a personal computer. They have been especially assiduous at enlisting people with lower incomes and ethnic and racial minorities, part of an attempt to bolster the representativeness of their samples.The poll was administered by YouGov/Polimetrix. Polimetrix interviewed 899 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final data set. The respondents were matched on gender, age, race, education, party identification and political interest. YouGov/Polimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to known marginals for the general population of Texas from the 2006 American Community Survey. Those marginals are:
Age:
18-34: 33.45%
35-54: 39.08%
55+: 27.53%
Gender:
Male: 48.97%
Female: 51.03%
Race:
White/Other: 57.63%
Black: 10.94%
Hispanic: 31.43%
Education:
HS or less: 49.23%
Some College: 28.49%
College Graduate: 15.23%
Post-graduate: 7.50%
8.2 October 2008
The October 2008 UT-Austin Texas Politics Poll was designed by researchers at UT-Austin and conducted by YouGov/Polimetrix, a firm with demonstrated success in internet polling. YouGov/Polimetrix accomplishes internet polling through a unique sampling procedure known as "matched random sampling." The firm begins with two lists: (1) a list of all adult "consumers" in Texas (covering approximately 95 percent of the adult population), and (2) a list of people who have agreed to take YouGov/Polimetrix's surveys. For each list, Polimetrix has an extensive set of demographics.
The sampling procedure then progresses in two stages. First, a random sample of consumers is drawn. For each person drawn from this sample a list of key demographics is recorded. In essence, each individual drawn is represented as a cluster of demographic characteristics, including age, income, education, race, gender, longitude and latitude, etc. Second, YouGov/Polimetrix uses a matching algorithm to find the PollingPoint panelist who is the closest match to the person drawn off the consumer file. In this way an entire "matched" random sample is constructed for all people in the "drawn" sample.
The October 2008 poll consists of 613 adult Texans, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.98 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The poll includes interviews with 550 registered voters, with an attendant margin of error of +/- 4.20 percentage points. Response rates are almost 100% given the matching methodology. The YouGov/Polimetrix pool includes people who are much less likely to have access to the Internet or a personal computer. YouGov/Polimetrix has been especially assiduous at enlisting ethnic and racial minorities, as well as people who are less affluent, as part of their attempt to ensure the representativeness of their samples.The poll was administered by YouGov/Polimetrix. Polimetrix interviewed 899 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 613 to produce the final data set. The respondents were matched on (among other items) gender, age, race, education, party identification and political interest. YouGov/Polimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to known marginals for the general population of Texas from the 2006 American Community Survey. Those marginals are:
Age:
18-34: 33.45%
35-54: 39.08%
55+: 27.53%
Gender:
Male: 48.97%
Female: 51.03%
Race:
White/Other: 57.63%
Black: 10.94%
Hispanic: 31.43%
Education:
HS or less: 49.23%
Some College: 28.49%
College Grad.: 15.23%
Post-graduate: 7.50%
8.3 February-March 2009
The March 2009 UT-Austin Texas Politics Poll was designed by researchers at UT-Austin and conducted by YouGov/Polimetrix, a firm with demonstrated success in internet polling. YouGov/Polimetrix accomplishes internet polling through a unique sampling procedure known as "matched random sampling." The firm begins with two lists: (1) a list of all adult "consumers" in Texas (covering approximately 95 percent of the adult population), and (2) a list of people who have agreed to take YouGov/Polimetrix's surveys. For each list, Polimetrix has an extensive set of demographics.
The sampling procedure then progresses in two stages. First, a random sample of consumers is drawn. For each person drawn from this sample a list of key demographics is recorded. In essence, each individual drawn is represented as a cluster of demographic characteristics, including age, income, education, race, gender, longitude and latitude, etc. Second, YouGov/Polimetrix uses a matching algorithm to find the PollingPoint panelist who is the closest match to the person drawn off the consumer file. In this way an entire "matched" random sample is constructed for all people in the "drawn" sample.
The March 2009 poll consists of 800 adult Texans, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The poll includes interviews with 715 registered voters, with an attendant margin of error of +/- 3.66 percentage points. Response rates are almost 100% given the matching methodology. The YouGov/Polimetrix pool includes people who are much less likely to have access to the Internet or a personal computer. YouGov/Polimetrix has been especially assiduous at enlisting ethnic and racial minorities, as well as people who are less affluent, as part of their attempt to ensure the representativeness of their samples. Surveys were completed between February 24 and March 6, 2009.The poll was administered by YouGov/Polimetrix. Polimetrix interviewed 899 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final data set. The respondents were matched on gender, age, race, education, party identification and political interest. YouGov/Polimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to known marginals for the general population of Texas from the 2006 American Community Survey. Those marginals are:
Age:
18-34: 33.45%
35-54: 39.08%
55+: 27.53%
Gender:
Male: 48.97%
Female: 51.03%
Race:
White/Other: 57.63%
Black: 10.94%
Hispanic: 31.43%
Education:
HS or less: 49.23%
Some College: 28.49%
College Graduate: 15.23%
Post-graduate: 7.50%
Surveys were completed between February 25 and March 6.
8.4 June 2009
The June 2009 UT-Austin Texas Politics Poll was designed by researchers in the UT-Austin Department of Government and conducted by YouGov/Polimetrix, a firm with demonstrated success in internet polling. YouGov/Polimetrix accomplishes internet polling through a unique sampling procedure known as "matched random sampling." The firm begins with two lists: (1) a list of all adult "consumers" in Texas (covering approximately 95 percent of the adult population), and (2) a list of people who have agreed to take YouGov/Polimetrix's surveys. For each list, Polimetrix has an extensive set of demographics.
The sampling procedure then progresses in two stages. First, a random sample of consumers is drawn. For each person drawn from this sample a list of key demographics is recorded. In essence, each individual drawn is represented as a cluster of demographic characteristics, including age, income, education, race, gender, longitude and latitude, etc. Second, YouGov/Polimetrix uses a matching algorithm to find the PollingPoint panelist who is the closest match to the person drawn off the consumer file. In this way an entire "matched" random sample is constructed for all people in the "drawn" sample.
The June 2009 poll consists of 924 adult Texans, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.22 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The poll includes interviews with 791 registered voters, with an attendant margin of error of +/- 3.66 percentage points. Response rates are almost 100% given the matching methodology. The YouGov/Polimetrix pool includes people who are much less likely to have access to the Internet or a personal computer. YouGov/Polimetrix has been especially assiduous at enlisting ethnic and racial minorities, as well as people who are less affluent, as part of their attempt to ensure the representativeness of their samples. Surveys were completed between June 11 and June 22, 2009.
Polimetrix interviewed 924 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final data set. The respondents were matched on gender, age, race, education, party identification and political interest. YouGov/Polimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to known marginals for the general population of Texas from the 2006 American Community Survey. Those marginals are:
Age:
18-34: 33.45%
35-54: 39.08%
55+: 27.53%
Gender:
Male: 48.97%
Female: 51.03%
Race:
White/Other: 57.63%
Black: 10.94%
Hispanic: 31.43%
Education:
HS or less: 49.23%
Some College: 28.49%
College Graduate: 15.23%
Post-graduate: 7.50%
8.5 October 2009
The October 2009 Texas Tribune/UT-Austin Texas Politics Poll was designed by researchers at UT-Austin and conducted by YouGov/Polimetrix, a firm with demonstrated success in internet polling. YouGov/Polimetrix accomplishes internet polling through a unique sampling procedure known as "matched random sampling." The firm begins with two lists: (1) a list of all adult "consumers" in Texas (covering approximately 95 percent of the adult population), and (2) a list of people who have agreed to take YouGov/Polimetrix's surveys. For each list, Polimetrix has an extensive set of demographics.
The sampling procedure then progresses in two stages. First, a random sample of consumers is drawn. For each person drawn from this sample a list of key demographics is recorded. In essence, each individual drawn is represented as a cluster of demographic characteristics, including age, income, education, race, gender, longitude and latitude, etc. Second, YouGov/Polimetrix uses a matching algorithm to find the PollingPoint panelist who is the closest match to the person drawn off the consumer file. In this way an entire "matched" random sample is constructed for all people in the "drawn" sample.
The October 2009 poll consists primarily of 800 adults who are registered voters in Texas, and has a margin of error of +/-3.46 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The YouGov/Polimetrix pool includes people who are much less likely to have access to the Internet or a personal computer. YouGov/Polimetrix has been especially assiduous at enlisting ethnic and racial minorities, as well as people who are less affluent, as part of their attempt to ensure the representativeness of their samples. Surveys were completed between October 20 and October 27, 2009.
Polimetrix interviewed 1152 respondents who were then matched down to
a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched ongender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest.
Polimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to known
marginals for the registered voters of Texas from the 2008 Current Population Survey. Those marginals are shown below.
Age:
18-34: 33.45%
35-54: 39.08%
55+: 27.53%
Gender:
Male: 48.97%
Female: 51.03%
Race:
White/Other: 57.63%
Black: 10.94%
Hispanic: 31.43%
Education:
HS or less: 49.23%
Some College: 28.49%
College Graduate: 15.23%
Post-graduate: 7.50%
Because Hank Gilbert was inadvertently left off the list of Democratic gubernatorial nominees in the original round of surveying, YouGov/Polimetrix re-interviewed 269 respondents to the October 2009 survey who had indicated that they intended to vote in the Texas Democratic gubernatorial primary. These respondents were then weighted to the distribution of Democratic gubernatorial primary voters in the initial survey on the following variables: gender, race, age, education, party ID, political interest, ideology, and national origin.
8.6 February 2010
Sampling and Weighting Methodology for the February 2010 Texas Statewide Study
Survey Panel Data
The PollingPoint panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 1.6 million U.S. residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Polimetrix's Web surveys. At any given time, YouGov Polimetrix maintains a minimum of five recruitment campaigns based on salient current events.
Panel members are recruited by a number of methods and on a variety of topics to help ensure diversity in the panel population. Recruiting methods include Web advertising campaigns (public surveys), permission-based email campaigns, partner sponsored solicitations, telephone-to-Web recruitment (RDD based sampling), and mail-to-Web recruitment (Voter Registration Based Sampling).
The primary method of recruitment for the PollingPoint Panel is Web advertising campaigns that appear based on keyword searches. In practice, a search in Google may prompt an active PollingPoint advertisement soliciting opinion on the search topic. At the conclusion of the short survey respondents are invited to join the PollingPoint panel in order to receive and participate in additional surveys. After a double opt-in procedure, where respondents must confirm their consent by responding to an email, the database checks to ensure the newly recruited panelist is in fact new and that the address information provided is valid.
Additionally, YouGov Polimetrix augments their panel with difficult to recruit respondents by soliciting panelists in telephone and mail surveys. For example, in the fall and winter of 2006, YouGov Polimetrix completed telephone interviews using RDD sampling and invited respondents to join the online panel. Respondents provided a working email where they could confirm their consent and request to receive online survey invitations. YouGov Polimetrix also employed registration based sampling, inviting respondents to complete a pre-election survey online. At the conclusion of that survey, respondents were invited to become PollingPoint members and receive additional survey invitations at their email address.
The PollingPoint panel currently has over 55,000 active panelists who are registered voters in Texas. These panelists cover a wide range of demographic characteristics.
Sampling and Sample Matching
Sample matching is a methodology for selection of "representative" samples from non-randomly selected pools of respondents. It is ideally suited for Web access panels, but could also be used for other types of surveys, such as phone surveys. Sample matching starts with an enumeration of the target population. For general population studies, the target population is all adults, and can be enumerated through the use of the decennial Census or a high quality survey, such as the American Community Survey. In other contexts, this is known as the sampling frame, though, unlike conventional sampling, the sample is not drawn from the frame. Traditional sampling, then, selects individuals from the sampling frame at random for participation in the study. This may not be feasible or economical as the contact information, especially email addresses, is not available for all individuals in the frame and refusals to participate increase the costs of sampling in this way.
Sample selection using the matching methodology is a two-stage process.
First, a random sample is drawn from the target population. We call this sample the target sample. Details on how the target sample is drawn are provided below, but the essential idea is that this sample is a true probability sample and thus representative of the frame from which it was drawn.
Second, for each member of the target sample, we select one or more matching members from our pool of opt-in respondents. This is called the matched sample. Matching is accomplished using a large set of variables that are available in consumer and voter databases for both the target population and the opt-in panel.
The purpose of matching is to find an available respondent who is as similar as possible to the selected member of the target sample. The result is a sample of respondents who have the same measured characteristics as the target sample. Under certain conditions, described below, the matched sample will have similar properties to a true random sample. That is, the matched sample mimics the characteristics of the target sample. It is, as far as we can tell, "representative" of the target population (because it is similar to the target sample).
When choosing the matched sample, it is necessary to find the closest matching respondent in the panel of opt-ins to each member of the target sample. Polimetrix employs the proximity matching method to find the closest matching respondent. For each variable used for matching, we define a distance function, d(x,y), which describes how "close" the values x and y are on a particular attribute. The overall distance between a member of the target sample and a member of the panel is a weighted sum of the individual distance functions on each attribute. The weights can be adjusted for each study based upon which variables are thought to be important for that study, though, for the most part, we have not found the matching procedure to be sensitive to small adjustments of the weights. A large weight, on the other hand, forces the algorithm toward an exact match on that dimension.
Sampling Frame and Target Sample
YouGov/Polimetrix constructed a national sampling frame from the 2007 American Community Survey, including data on age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state, and metropolitan area. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2007 ACS sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2006 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life survey, using the following variables for the match: age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state. The target sample of 800 Texas registered voters was selected with stratification by age, race, gender, education, and with simple random sampling within strata.
Weighting
Because matching is approximate, rather than exact, and response rates vary by group, the sample of completed interviews normally shows small amounts of imbalance that can be corrected by post-stratification weighting.
Raking, first proposed by Deming and Stephan (1940), adjusts an initial set of weights to match a known set of population marginals, using a method of iterative proportional fitting (see Bishop, Fienberg and Holland, 1975 for details). In this procedure, the weights are adjusted sequentially to match the marginal distribution of each weight variable. The process proceeds until all marginals are matched. It does not require any information about the joint distribution of the variables (though, if these data are available and believed to be important, they can be employed by defining a marginal distribution involving a cross-classification of two variables).
You Gov Politmetrix calculated post-stratification weights by raking the completed interviews to known marginals for the general population of Texas from the November 2006 Current Population Survey and Pew Religious Life survey for the following variables: age, race, gender, education, and ideology.
8.7 May 2010
Sampling and Weighting Methodology for the February 2010 Texas Statewide Study
Sampling Frame and Target Sample
YouGov/Polimetrix constructed a national sampling frame from the 2007 American Community Survey, including data on age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state, and metropolitan area. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2007 ACS sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2006 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life survey, using the following variables for the match: age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state. The target sample of 800 Texas registered voters was selected with stratification by age, race, gender, education, and with simple random sampling within strata.
Weighting
Because matching is approximate, rather than exact, and response rates vary by group, the sample of completed interviews normally shows small amounts of imbalance that can be corrected by post-stratification weighting.
Raking, first proposed by Deming and Stephan (1940), adjusts an initial set of weights to match a known set of population marginals, using a method of iterative proportional fitting (see Bishop, Fienberg and Holland, 1975 for details). In this procedure, the weights are adjusted sequentially to match the marginal distribution of each weight variable. The process proceeds until all marginals are matched. It does not require any information about the joint distribution of the variables (though, if these data are available and believed to be important, they can be employed by defining a marginal distribution involving a cross-classification of two variables).
Post-stratification weights are calculated by raking the completed interviews to known marginals for the general population of Texas from the November 2006 Current Population Survey and Pew Religious Life survey for the following variables: age, race, gender, and education.
8.8 September 2010
For the University of Texas / Texas Tribune survey, YouGovPolimetrix interviewed 906 respondents between September 3 and 8, 2010, who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest. YouGovPolimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to
known marginals for the registered voters of Texas from the 2008 Current Population survey and the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey.
Sampling Frame and Target Sample
YouGovPolimetrix constructed a national sampling frame from the 2007 American Community
Survey, including data on age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18,
family income, employment status, citizenship, state, and metropolitan area. The frame was
constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2007 ACS sample with selection within strata by
weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on
voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2008
Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched
to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life survey, using the following variables for the match:
age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income,
employment status, citizenship, state. The target sample of 800 Texas registered voters was
selected with stratification by age, race, gender, education, and with simple random sampling
within strata.
Weighting
Because matching is approximate, rather than exact, and response rates vary by group, the sample
of completed interviews normally shows small amounts of imbalance that can be corrected by
post-stratification weighting.
Raking, first proposed by Deming and Stephan (1940), adjusts an initial set of weights to match a
known set of population marginals, using a method of iterative proportional fitting (see Bishop,
Fienberg and Holland, 1975 for details). In this procedure, the weights are adjusted sequentially to
match the marginal distribution of each weight variable. The process proceeds until all marginals
are matched. It does not require any information about the joint distribution of the variables
(though, if these data are available and believed to be important, they can be employed by defining
a marginal distribution involving a cross-classification of two variables).
Post-stratification weights are calculated by raking the completed interviews to known marginals
for the general population of Texas from the November 2008 Current Population Survey for the
following variables: age, race, gender, and education.
8.9 October 2010
Sampling and Weighting Methodology for the October 2010 Texas Statewide Study
For the survey, YouGovPolimetrix interviewed 914 respondents between October 11 and 19, 2010, who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest. YouGovPolimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to
known marginals for the registered voters of Texas from the 2008 Current Population survey and the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey.
Sampling Frame and Target Sample
YouGovPolimetrix constructed a national sampling frame from the 2007 American Community Survey, including data on age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state, and metropolitan area. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2007 ACS sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2008 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched
to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life survey, using the following variables for the match: age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state. The target sample of 800 Texas registered voters was selected with stratification by age, race, gender, education, and with simple random sampling within strata.
Weighting
Because matching is approximate, rather than exact, and response rates vary by group, the sample of completed interviews normally shows small amounts of imbalance that can be corrected by post-stratification weighting.
Raking, first proposed by Deming and Stephan (1940), adjusts an initial set of weights to match a known set of population marginals, using a method of iterative proportional fitting (see Bishop, Fienberg and Holland, 1975 for details). In this procedure, the weights are adjusted sequentially to
match the marginal distribution of each weight variable. The process proceeds until all marginals are matched. It does not require any information about the joint distribution of the variables (though, if these data are available and believed to be important, they can be employed by defining
a marginal distribution involving a cross-classification of two variables).
Post-stratification weights are calculated by raking the completed interviews to known marginals for the general population of Texas from the November 2008 Current Population Survey for the following variables: age, race, gender, and education.
8.10 February 2011
Sampling and Weighting Methodology for the February 11 Texas Statewide Study
For the February 2011 survey, YouGovPolimetrix interviewed 963 respondents between February 9-18 2011, who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest.
YouGovPolimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to known marginals for the registered voters of Texas from the 2008 Current Population survey and the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey.
Sampling Frame and Target Sample
YouGovPolimetrix constructed a national sampling frame from the 2007 American Community Survey, including data on age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state, and metropolitan area. The frame was
constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2007 ACS sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2008 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life survey, using the following variables for the match: age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state. The target sample of 800 Texas registered voters was
selected with stratification by age, race, gender, education, and with simple random sampling within strata.
Weighting
Because matching is approximate, rather than exact, and response rates vary by group, the sample of completed interviews normally shows small amounts of imbalance that can be corrected by
post-stratification weighting. Raking, first proposed by Deming and Stephan (1940), adjusts an initial set of weights to match a known set of population marginals, using a method of iterative proportional fitting (see Bishop,
Fienberg and Holland, 1975 for details). In this procedure, the weights are adjusted sequentially to match the marginal distribution of each weight variable. The process proceeds until all marginals are matched. It does not require any information about the joint distribution of the variables
(though, if these data are available and believed to be important, they can be employed by defining a marginal distribution involving a cross-classification of two variables). Post-stratification weights are calculated by raking the completed interviews to known marginals for Texas registered voters from the November 2008 Current Population Survey for the following
variables: age, race, gender, and education.
8.11 May 2011
For the May 2011 University of Texas / Texas Tribune survey, Polimetrix interviewed 891 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest. Polimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to known marginals for the registered voters of Texas from the 2008 Current Population survey and the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey.
Sampling Frame and Target Sample
YouGovPolimetrix constructed a national sampling frame from the 2007 American Community Survey, including data on age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state, and metropolitan area. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2007 ACS sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2008 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life survey, using the following variables for the match: age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state. The target sample of 800 Texas registered voters was selected with stratification by age, race, gender, education, and with simple random sampling within strata.
Weighting
Because matching is approximate, rather than exact, and response rates vary by group, the sample of completed interviews normally shows small amounts of imbalance that can be corrected by post-stratification weighting. Raking, first proposed by Deming and Stephan (1940), adjusts an initial set of weights to match a known set of population marginals, using a method of iterative proportional fitting (see Bishop, Fienberg and Holland, 1975 for details). In this procedure, the weights are adjusted sequentially to match the marginal distribution of each weight variable. The process proceeds until all marginals are matched. It does not require any information about the joint distribution of the variables (though, if these data are available and believed to be important, they can be employed by defining a marginal distribution involving a cross-classification of two variables). Post-stratification weights are calculated by raking the completed interviews to known marginals for Texas registered voters from the November 2008 Current Population Survey for the following variables: age, race, gender, and education.
8.12 October 2011
Sampling and Weighting Methodology for the October 2011 Texas Statewide Study
For the survey, YouGovPolimetrix interviewed 889 respondents between October 19-26 2011, who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest. YouGovPolimetrix then weighted the matched set of survey respondents to known marginals for the registered voters of Texas from the 2008 Current Population survey and the 2007 Pew Religious Life Survey.
Sampling Frame and Target Sample
YouGovPolimetrix constructed a national sampling frame from the 2007 American Community Survey, including data on age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state, and metropolitan area. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2007 ACS sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2008 Current Population Survey. Data on interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007 Pew Religious Life survey, using the following variables for the match: age, race, gender, education, marital status, number of children under 18, family income, employment status, citizenship, state. The target sample of 800 Texas registered voters was selected with stratification by age, race, gender, education, and with simple random sampling within strata.
Weighting
Because matching is approximate, rather than exact, and response rates vary by group, the sample of completed interviews normally shows small amounts of imbalance that can be corrected by post-stratification weighting.
Raking, first proposed by Deming and Stephan (1940), adjusts an initial set of weights to match a known set of population marginals, using a method of iterative proportional fitting (see Bishop, Fienberg and Holland, 1975 for details). In this procedure, the weights are adjusted sequentially to match the marginal distribution of each weight variable. The process proceeds until all marginals are matched. It does not require any information about the joint distribution of the variables (though, if these data are available and believed to be important, they can be employed by defining a marginal distribution involving a cross-classification of two variables).
Post-stratification weights are calculated by raking the completed interviews to known marginals for Texas registered voters from the November 2008 Current Population Survey for the following variables: age, race, gender, and education.
Survey Panel Data
The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 1.2 million U.S. residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys. At any given time, YouGov maintains a minimum of five recruitment campaigns based on salient current events.
Panel members are recruited by a number of methods and on a variety of topics to help ensure diversity in the panel population. Recruiting methods include Web advertising campaigns (public surveys), permission-based email campaigns, partner sponsored solicitations, telephone-to-Web recruitment (RDD based sampling), and mail-to-Web recruitment (Voter Registration Based Sampling).
The primary method of recruitment for the YouGov Panel is Web advertising campaigns that appear based on keyword searches. In practice, a search in Google may prompt an active YouGov advertisement soliciting opinion on the search topic. At the conclusion of the short survey respondents are invited to join the YouGov panel in order to receive and participate in additional surveys. After a double opt-in procedure, where respondents must confirm their consent by responding to an email, the database checks to ensure the newly recruited panelist is in fact new and that the address information provided is valid.
Additionally, YouGov augments their panel with difficult to recruit respondents by soliciting panelists in telephone and mail surveys. For example, in 2006 and 2010, YouGov completed telephone interviews using RDD sampling and invited respondents to join the online panel. Respondents provided a working email where they could confirm their consent and request to receive online survey invitations. YouGov also employed registration based sampling, inviting respondents to complete a pre-election survey online. At the conclusion of that survey, respondents were invited to become YouGov members and receive additional survey invitations at their email address.
The YouGov panel currently has nearly 20,000 panelists who are residents of Texas. These panelists cover a wide range of demographic characteristics.
Sampling and Sample Matching
Sample matching is a methodology for selection of "representative" samples from non-randomly selected pools of respondents. It is ideally suited for Web access panels, but could also be used for other types of surveys, such as phone surveys. Sample matching starts with an enumeration of the target population. For general population studies, the target population is all adults, and can be enumerated through the use of the decennial Census or a high quality survey, such as the American Community Survey. In other contexts, this is known as the sampling frame, though, unlike conventional sampling, the sample is not drawn from the frame. Traditional sampling, then, selects individuals from the sampling frame at random for participation in the study. This may not be feasible or economical as the contact information, especially email addresses, is not available for all individuals in the frame and refusals to participate increase the costs of sampling in this way.
Sample selection using the matching methodology is a two-stage process. First, a random sample is drawn from the target population. We call this sample the target sample. Details on how the target sample is drawn are provided below, but the essential idea is that this sample is a true probability sample and thus representative of the frame from which it was drawn.
Second, for each member of the target sample, we select one or more matching members from our pool of opt-in respondents. This is called the matched sample. Matching is accomplished using a large set of variables that are available in consumer and voter databases for both the target population and the opt-in panel.
The purpose of matching is to find an available respondent who is as similar as possible to the selected member of the target sample. The result is a sample of respondents who have the same measured characteristics as the target sample. Under certain conditions, described below, the matched sample will have similar properties to a true random sample. That is, the matched sample mimics the characteristics of the target sample.
When choosing the matched sample, it is necessary to find the closest matching respondent in the panel of opt-ins to each member of the target sample. YouGov employs the proximity matching method to find the closest matching respondent. For each variable used for matching, we define a distance function, d(x,y), which describes how "close" the values x and y are on a particular attribute. The overall distance between a member of the target sample and a member of the panel is a weighted sum of the individual distance functions on each attribute. The weights can be adjusted for each study based upon which variables are thought to be important for that study, though, for the most part, we have not found the matching procedure to be sensitive to small adjustments of the weights. A large weight, on the other hand, forces the algorithm toward an exact match on that dimension.
9. About These Polls
The UT-Austin Texas Politics Poll was launched in July of 2008, marking a major step forward in the measurement of public opinion for Texas.
In October, 2009, researchers in the Department of Government welcomed The Texas Tribune, a new non-profit, nonpartisan public media organization based in Austin, as collaborators in the project. The Tribune will sponsor five public opinion polls that are to be conducted between October 2009 and December 2010 by The University of Texas at Austin's Texas Politics Project.
At the time the UT Poll was launched, Texas did not have a regularly occurring, non-partisan poll from which data are made available for public use (other large states, such as California and New York, have these sorts of polls). The UT Poll fills this gap by providing a much-needed measure of public opinion among adult citizens of Texas.
The UT-Austin/Texas Tribune poll is notable not just for its substantive contribution but for its research design as well. It is conducted in conjunction with YouGov/Polimetrix, a company that is well-known for its innovative internet-based survey techniques. Unlike most political surveys, the UT-Austin/Texas Tribune Poll will be conducted entirely online. Internet-based polling is rapidly becoming a popular alternative to telephone-based polling; as many have observed, telephone polls are becoming somewhat problematic because of the growth of cellphone-only households and caller ID screening in residential landlines. Thus, the UT-Austin/Texas Tribune Poll represents a cutting-edge approach to ascertaining popular opinion in Texas.
The poll is designed to provide both educational and research resources to students, educators, and the general public. The survey data is and will continue to be made available to the public and to researchers. Graphs and charts are designed to make data not only available but accessible to everyone interested in Texas politics and government.
Contact:
Dr. James Henson
Department of Government and Liberal Arts Instructional Technology Services
The University of Texas at Austin
512 471-0090
j.henson[at]austin.utexas.edu
Professor Daron Shaw
Government Department
University of Texas at Austin
512 232-7275
dshaw[at]austin.utexas.edu
