Februrary 2009

The February, 2009 survey checked into Texans' thoughts on the 2010 statewide elections, along with their initial preferences in a potential senate election to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison (should she resign her seat).

In a match-up of heavyweights, we find that U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison leads Governor Rick Perry 36% to 30% among respondents who say they plan to vote in the 2010 Republican Primary election. The six-point margin, combined with a the 34% who say they have not yet made up their minds, indicates that Hutchison may not have the overwhelming lead many have assumed. Hutchison's margin is derived largely from her support among women and independent Republicans, while Perry is either even or holds a small lead among men and strong conservatives. If the sample is reduced slightly to registered voters who say they plan to vote in the Republican primary, the margin widens slightly to 37-29, with the undecided percentage remaining the same.

To ascertain preferences in a prospective election to fill Senator Hutchison's seat, we relied on voting probability scales. That is, for each of the leading candidates we offered a short biographical statement and then asked how likely is it that the respondent would vote for this person, using a 0 (no chance of voting for him/her) to 100 (certain to vote for him/her) scale. Among oft-mentioned Republican candidates, Greg Abbott leads the way with an average score of 51, followed by David Dewhurst (49), Michael Williams (48), Elizabeth Ames Jones (45), Florence Shapiro (44), and Roger Williams (44). On the Democratic side, John Sharp received an average score of 47, with Bill White receiving a 45.

These voting probability scores can also be used to compare the preferences of individual voters for specific candidate match-ups. We find that relatively well-known Republican candidates (especially Abbott and Dewhurst) typically hold a 5-10 point lead over well-known Democrats (Sharp and White). Lesser known Republicans (Ames-Jones, Shapiro, and Roger Williams), however, are essentially tied with Sharp and White. As might be expected, many voters rate their probability of voting for specific candidates at the mid-point of 50, creating a high percentage of "undecided" voters in our head-to-head estimates. Party identification is the primary explanation of candidate preference; Republicans prefer Republicans and Democrats prefer Democrats.

October 2008 (2008 election)

Looking more closely at the survey data on the election suggests how different groups of Texans are responding to the candidates in the presidential and US Senate races.

In the presidential race, the national trend of strong black support for Barack Obama is also evident among Texans, with Obama receiving 92% of the support among blacks registrants (compared to 3% for McCain and 5% undecided). Obama is receiving decent -- though not overwhelming -- support among Latinos, edging McCain 51%-39%. Interestingly, 10% of Latinos are undecided, the highest percent among the ethnic/racial sub-groups. Whites supported McCain by a margin of 68%-23.5%, with 6.5% undecided.

When the sample is broken down by gender, McCain enjoys a sizable lead among men: 57% to 34% for Obama, with Libertarian Bob Barr polling 3% and 6% undecided. Women were more evenly divided among McCain and Obama, with McCain registering 46% versus Obama's 44 with 9.5% undecided.

In the US Senate match up, gender and ethnic categories exhibit similar though less lopsided patterns of support. Democrat Rick Noriega had a slight 40%-38% lead among women, with Libertarian Yvonne Schick garnering just under 3% and 20% undecided. Men favored incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn heavily, 53.5% to 31%, with Shcick at 8%.

A hypothetical match up asked respondents, "If the presidential election were between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden, for whom would you vote?" Though the Republican vice-presidential candidate's approval numbers have fluctuated widely nationally, registered voters in the Texas sample chose Palin by a comfortable 49%-42% margin, with 10% undecided. Men preferred Palin to Biden by a 56%-40% margin, while women preferred Palin by a slimmer 46-45 margin, with 9% of women unsure.