Republican Gubernatorial Primary

The October 2009 poll results demonstrate an increasingly engaged Republican primary electorate. In the GOP gubernatorial primary election, the poll finds Gov. Rick Perry leading Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by 12 points (42-30), an adge that is just outside the 5.14 point margin of error of 5.14%. Debra Medina runs a distant third with 7%.

Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

The race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination continues to be marked by a lack of engagement and enthusiasm, with more than half of those planning on voting in the Democratic primary not yet having settled on a choice. Among Democratic primary voters, Kinky Friedman leads the large pack of contenders with 19%, followed by Tom Schieffer with 10%. All of the other Democratic candidates for governor garnered 5% or less of the vote.

Potential Senate Special Election

Because Senator Hutchison has yet to announce her resignation from the U.S. Senate, the potential race to fill her seat has yet to draw voters' attention - or at least their commitment to any of the prospective candidates. As in our June Survey, the number of undecided voters is still large. Houston Mayor Bill White appears to have made some head-way -- he trailed John Sharp and David Dewhurst in June, and now runs neck and neck with Dewhurst at 13% (Sharp garners 10% this time around). All three well are within the margin of error here, and nobody is really making the needle jump. The other candidates all remain in low single figures. White appears to be doing better with weak and leaning Democrats and independents, while Sharp and White are splitting the strong Democrats.

Gubernatorial General Election

In a series of hypothetical match-ups against the prominent Democratic "front runners," Hutchison runs stronger than Perry across the board: nine points stronger against Tom Schieffer, five points stronger against Kinky Friedman, and seven points stronger against Ronnie Earle. Both candidates, however, register double-figure advantages in all of these hypothetical head to heads.

Against an unnamed Democratic nominee, however, Hutchison tops the Democrat by 11 points (36-25), while Perry wins by only 1 point. Many respondents clearly wish to maintain an open-mind, as support for an un-named third party candidate and the percentage saying they are undecided remains very high. Still, the fact that the governor only wins against a generic Democrat by one point may be important, especially in light of his sagging approval numbers.

Generic Congressional and State Legislative Ballot

When asked about other elections, Republicans enjoyed a nine-point advantage in the Congressional match up, but only a six-point lead in state legislative races. That this passes for good news is commentary on the tough sledding for Democrats. Still, it can be seen as a sign of continuing improvement in their legislative election competitiveness, something that has been manifest over the last two cycles.